Commodities Crunch
Stocks fell further overnight after a soft Asia Pacific trading session yesterday. Despite positive industrial data from Japan and the USA in the last 24 hours, investors sold, apparently with an eye on year-end tax issues. While volumes were low and falls mild, the continuation of recent weakness could see local investors on the back foot today.
Steady commodity prices, and a lift in copper, may see support for local shares. Mining and energy stocks were yesterday’s top performers, and may feature again today as traders are forced to lower the risk premium attached to commodity exposed stocks. Currently priced for further falls, even a steady state in commodity prices should garner support for mining and oil and gas shares.
Employment data today is expected to reverse the strong gains made in October, with consensus clustering around a loss of ten thousand jobs. Implications for interest rates are low, but a stronger than expected number could see buying. Traders remain focussed on the co-incidence of the US FOMC meeting and the statistical analysis that suggests year end rallies start around the 15th of December.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
Stocks fell due to investors focusing on year-end tax issues, despite the positive industrial data from Japan and the USA. This suggests that external factors like tax considerations can sometimes outweigh positive economic indicators.
Steady commodity prices, along with a lift in copper, are providing support for local shares. Mining and energy stocks, in particular, are benefiting as traders adjust the risk premium on commodity-exposed stocks.
Mining and energy stocks are currently performing well and may continue to do so if commodity prices remain steady. Even without price increases, the reduced risk premium is supporting these sectors.
The expected employment data, which predicts a loss of ten thousand jobs, is not likely to significantly impact interest rates. However, a stronger than expected employment figure could lead to increased buying activity in the market.
Traders are focused on the US FOMC meeting and the statistical analysis suggesting that year-end rallies often start around December 15th. These factors can influence market sentiment and trading strategies.
Year-end tax issues can lead to stock market movements as investors adjust their portfolios for tax purposes. This can result in selling pressure, even in the face of positive economic data.
A steady state in commodity prices can lead to increased support for mining and oil and gas shares, as investors may perceive reduced risk in these sectors and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
Low trading volumes can lead to mild market movements, as seen in the recent stock falls. It suggests that while there is some selling pressure, it is not strong enough to cause significant market shifts.

