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Commodities and Google put market on the defensive

The size of the commodity rally itself has got to the stage where it is beginning to weigh on investor sentiment. In these volatile times the recent rally is beginning to create downside risk.
By · 22 Apr 2016
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22 Apr 2016 · 0 min read
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The size of the commodity rally itself has got to the stage where it is beginning to weigh on investor sentiment. In these volatile times the recent rally is beginning to create downside risk.

Traders are likely to look through yesterday’s spike in spot iron ore prices, pushing the major resource stocks lower at the open this morning. Markets will pay more attention to yesterdays’ drop in steel futures than to the spike in iron ore. While there are signs that underlying demand in China may improve this year, it’s not likely to be enough to explain the 13% increase in China’s steel production last month. Markets are concerned that this has been driven at least partly by opportunistic response to margin improvements that will not be sustainable.

The fact that Alphabet, the owner of Google missed profit expectations and was sold in afterhours trading will weigh on market sentiment today. This sets US market up for a nervous start tonight as investors contemplate disappointing advertising revenue growth and its implications for wider business confidence. This comes against the background of an earnings season that has overall surprised to the upside so far.

Another set of low weekly jobless claims is encouraging for the US economy. Claims have been consistently low in recent weeks, indicating that despite some recent misses in other economic data, the US job market remains in good shape. This may give US Dollar bears reason to pause.

Woolworth’s shareholders will be nervous about another strong set of sales numbers from Wesfarmers yesterday. Coles Food and Kmart’s sales growth in particular suggest Woolworths may still be struggling to consolidate market share at this stage.

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Ric Spooner
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The recent commodity rally is causing concern because it has reached a stage where it is beginning to weigh on investor sentiment, creating downside risk in these volatile times.

Traders are likely to look past the recent spike in spot iron ore prices, focusing instead on the drop in steel futures, which is pushing major resource stocks lower.

The market is skeptical about China's 13% increase in steel production last month, suspecting it may be driven by opportunistic responses to margin improvements rather than sustainable demand.

Alphabet, the owner of Google, missed profit expectations, leading to a sell-off in after-hours trading. This has negatively impacted market sentiment, especially concerning advertising revenue growth.

Alphabet's earnings miss sets the US market up for a nervous start, as investors worry about disappointing advertising revenue growth and its implications for broader business confidence.

Low weekly jobless claims are encouraging for the US economy, suggesting that despite some recent economic data misses, the US job market remains strong.

Woolworths shareholders might be concerned because Wesfarmers reported strong sales numbers, particularly in Coles Food and Kmart, indicating that Woolworths may still be struggling to consolidate market share.

The current earnings season has overall surprised to the upside, despite some companies like Alphabet missing expectations, indicating a mixed but generally positive outlook for the US market.