China powers on to snatch trade mantle from the United States
The total value of US exports and imports last year was $US3.82 trillion, the US Commerce Department has revealed. China's customs administration has already announced that the country's total trade last year was worth $US3.87 trillion.
"It is remarkable that an economy that is only a fraction of the size of the US economy has a larger trading volume," Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, told Bloomberg.
"The surpassing of the US is not because of a substantially undervalued currency that has led to an export boom," Mr Lardy said, pointing out that Chinese imports have grown at a faster rate than exports since 2007.
Not only has China managed to post a larger total trading figure, but the breakdown of imports compared with exports also makes for favourable reading in Beijing. China had a full-year trade surplus of $US231 billion with the US posting a total 2012 trade deficit of $US727.9 billion.
Indeed, the Asian powerhouse looks set to table an even better performance this year, as trade accelerated substantially last month. Exports jumped 25 per cent on a year-on-year basis and imports were up 29 per cent in January, beating analysts' expectations. However, the data is distorted by the timing of the Chinese New Year festivities.
Last year's Lunar New Year shutdown began in January, leaving fewer work days and boosting this year's figures by comparison.
Sales of passenger cars over the month soared to their highest ever. China's car sales jumped 46.4 per cent compared with January last year to a record monthly high of 2.03 million, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said.
The data is helping to ease fears that China could face a slump, but some remain worried. The French bank Societe Generale said last month there was still a chance of a "hard landing" with growth dropping below 6 per cent, dangerously low for China.
"A deceleration is likely by the end of the year if further stimulus measures are not forthcoming, which they probably won't because of latent inflation pressures," Alaistair Chan, an economist at Moody's, said last week.
But the data has reassured some. "Overall this says there is no need to worry about the strength of China's recovery," said Sun Junwei, China economist at HSBC in Beijing.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
Yes. According to the article, China's customs administration reported total trade of US$3.87 trillion last year, slightly ahead of the US Commerce Department's figure of US$3.82 trillion for US exports plus imports, marking a shift in global trade rankings.
The article notes that China achieved a larger trading volume despite being a smaller economy, with imports growing faster than exports since 2007. Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute also said the change isn't primarily due to a substantially undervalued currency.
China posted a full-year trade surplus of about US$231 billion with the US, while the US recorded a total 2012 trade deficit of roughly US$727.9 billion, according to the figures cited in the article.
China reported exports up 25% year‑on‑year and imports up 29% in January. However, the article cautions these figures are distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year — last year's shutdown fell in January, reducing comparable work days and inflating this year's growth rates.
The article highlights a strong pickup in consumer demand, with passenger car sales jumping 46.4% compared with January last year to a record monthly high of 2.03 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Some economists remain cautious. Societe Generale warned of a chance of a 'hard landing' with growth falling below 6%. Moody's economist Alaistair Chan said a deceleration is likely by year‑end if further stimulus isn't forthcoming because of latent inflation pressures. At the same time, HSBC economist Sun Junwei said the data suggests there is no need to worry about the strength of China's recovery.
The article suggests a structural shift in global commerce: China now leads in trade volume. For everyday investors, that underscores the importance of watching Chinese trade data, consumer indicators (like vehicle sales), and policy signals — all of which can influence global markets and sentiment.
The article presents a mixed picture: the fast January trade figures and record car sales are reassuring to some analysts, but the January data are partly distorted by the Lunar New Year timing and some economists warn of possible deceleration without further stimulus. Investors should consider both the strong activity indicators and the caveats mentioned by analysts.
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