Business as Usual

In an emphatic rejection of terrorism, markets around the globe rallied despite the IS attack on western values. Although initially weak, European markets turned up and finished in the green. The positive momentum spilled into the US session, and local futures are pointing to gains of around 1% at the Asia Pacific opening. However, today’s market picture is clouded by mixed signals from commodity markets.

Oil and the energy complex rallied as commodity traders took an each way bet – either escalating conflict or a resurgent Europe could tip the supply overhang into deficit. Gold is slightly lower, rejecting any notion that investors may be seeking safe haven. Copper is the concern – it slid another 2% and is now trading at six year lows. Weakness in this key industrial input could temper enthusiasm in materials and industrial shares.

Weekly consumer confidence numbers and the release of RBA minutes are unlikely to shift trading sentiment. The last minute spurt in the overnight session indicates substantial short positions in index futures. Built up over the last two weeks, these positions may force a scramble in trading today.