Breaking the Iran stalemate
A charged faceoff between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the week's global summits marathon set the tone for coming months.
Stratfor.com
In the last leg of this week's global summits marathon, world leaders made their way to Pittsburgh for a G-20 meeting after a lively UN General Assembly meeting in New York drew to a close on Friday.
What the assembly lacked in substance, it most certainly made up in entertainment value. Highlights included US President Barack Obama chairing a rare UN Security Council meeting, where all members adopted a toothless resolution on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, a fashionable Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi delivering a 90 minute diatribe on every topic ranging from sodomy to the number of US warships used to invade Grenada in 1983 and finally, a charged faceoff between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Unsurprisingly, the focus has turned to the growing crisis between Israel and Iran. After Ahmadinejad gave a long-winded speech Wednesday night reiterating Iran's refusal to bend to Western demands to curb its nuclear program, Netanyahu took the podium today with a forceful speech that not only condemned the Iranian regime for its denial of the Holocaust and "dangerous” polices, but also condemned the rest of the United Nations for allegedly failing to take a stand against Tehran. In a nutshell, Netanyahu was saying that, given the track record of failed or nonexistent UN resolutions, he does not trust the Security Council to protect Israel from an existential threat – a potentially nuclear Iran.
This message is loaded with implications. In less than a week, the P-5 1 group will be meeting with Iran to discuss the nuclear program. And so far, Iran has given every indication that it does not intend to make large enough concessions to satisfy Israel's concerns over its nuclear ambitions. Israel is thus left with few options, especially if it's looking as though the wheels on the United States' threatened sanctions regime targeting Iran's gasoline imports are already falling off.
Israel also understands the Russia factor. Russia is in an ongoing struggle with the United States right now in trying to get Washington to recognise Moscow's influence in the former soviet periphery. So far, the United States hasn't given Russia what it wants. As a result, Russia continues to flout the leverage it has with the United States over its ties to Iran. Not only can Russia completely bust apart a US- led sanctions regime, but it can also provide Iran with critical weapons systems that could seriously complicate an attack against Iran down the road. The Israelis simply are not seeing the value in delaying much longer.
Israel is therefore leaning heavily on the United States to reach some sort of compromise with Moscow to bring the Russians in line on the Iran issue. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made a statement today that may indicate that such a compromise has a chance – however slight – of happening. "I told the President of the United States that we think it necessary to help Iran make the right decision,” Medvedev said with just the right amount of ambiguity. "As for various types of sanctions, Russia's position is very simple, and I spoke about it recently. Sanctions rarely lead to productive results, but in some cases, the use of sanctions is inevitable. Ultimately, this is a matter of choice, and we are prepared to continue cooperating with the US administration on issues relating to Iran's peaceful nuclear program, as well as other matters.”
This is a notable shift in tone coming out of Moscow, but does not yet signify that a deal has been made between the Americans and the Russians that would alleviate the crisis over Iran. Our Russian sources are hinting to us that something bigger may be underway, but have also made clear that this is just the beginning of negotiations. One source in particular has indicated that thus far Washington is at least considering a Russian demand to postpone the US deployment of a Patriot air defence battery in Poland. In return, Moscow would stick to its pledge to delay delivery of the S-300 strategic air defence system to Iran. In essence, this would be a mutual commitment to postpone commitment to their strategic allies.
The question is, will that enough to satisfy Israel?
Stratfor provides intelligence services for individuals, global corporations, and divisions of the US and foreign governments around the world.
In the last leg of this week's global summits marathon, world leaders made their way to Pittsburgh for a G-20 meeting after a lively UN General Assembly meeting in New York drew to a close on Friday.
What the assembly lacked in substance, it most certainly made up in entertainment value. Highlights included US President Barack Obama chairing a rare UN Security Council meeting, where all members adopted a toothless resolution on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, a fashionable Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi delivering a 90 minute diatribe on every topic ranging from sodomy to the number of US warships used to invade Grenada in 1983 and finally, a charged faceoff between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Unsurprisingly, the focus has turned to the growing crisis between Israel and Iran. After Ahmadinejad gave a long-winded speech Wednesday night reiterating Iran's refusal to bend to Western demands to curb its nuclear program, Netanyahu took the podium today with a forceful speech that not only condemned the Iranian regime for its denial of the Holocaust and "dangerous” polices, but also condemned the rest of the United Nations for allegedly failing to take a stand against Tehran. In a nutshell, Netanyahu was saying that, given the track record of failed or nonexistent UN resolutions, he does not trust the Security Council to protect Israel from an existential threat – a potentially nuclear Iran.
This message is loaded with implications. In less than a week, the P-5 1 group will be meeting with Iran to discuss the nuclear program. And so far, Iran has given every indication that it does not intend to make large enough concessions to satisfy Israel's concerns over its nuclear ambitions. Israel is thus left with few options, especially if it's looking as though the wheels on the United States' threatened sanctions regime targeting Iran's gasoline imports are already falling off.
Israel also understands the Russia factor. Russia is in an ongoing struggle with the United States right now in trying to get Washington to recognise Moscow's influence in the former soviet periphery. So far, the United States hasn't given Russia what it wants. As a result, Russia continues to flout the leverage it has with the United States over its ties to Iran. Not only can Russia completely bust apart a US- led sanctions regime, but it can also provide Iran with critical weapons systems that could seriously complicate an attack against Iran down the road. The Israelis simply are not seeing the value in delaying much longer.
Israel is therefore leaning heavily on the United States to reach some sort of compromise with Moscow to bring the Russians in line on the Iran issue. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made a statement today that may indicate that such a compromise has a chance – however slight – of happening. "I told the President of the United States that we think it necessary to help Iran make the right decision,” Medvedev said with just the right amount of ambiguity. "As for various types of sanctions, Russia's position is very simple, and I spoke about it recently. Sanctions rarely lead to productive results, but in some cases, the use of sanctions is inevitable. Ultimately, this is a matter of choice, and we are prepared to continue cooperating with the US administration on issues relating to Iran's peaceful nuclear program, as well as other matters.”
This is a notable shift in tone coming out of Moscow, but does not yet signify that a deal has been made between the Americans and the Russians that would alleviate the crisis over Iran. Our Russian sources are hinting to us that something bigger may be underway, but have also made clear that this is just the beginning of negotiations. One source in particular has indicated that thus far Washington is at least considering a Russian demand to postpone the US deployment of a Patriot air defence battery in Poland. In return, Moscow would stick to its pledge to delay delivery of the S-300 strategic air defence system to Iran. In essence, this would be a mutual commitment to postpone commitment to their strategic allies.
The question is, will that enough to satisfy Israel?
Stratfor provides intelligence services for individuals, global corporations, and divisions of the US and foreign governments around the world.
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