Will the 12% fall in the Australian dollar since April 11 have some benefit on container terminal operator Asciano?
Not immediately. At 1340 AEST the Australian currency was at 92.78 US cents, down from $1.0545 on April 11. From April 11 to 1340 AEST Asciano shares had fallen 5.5% to $5.08.
But Citigroup’s Anthony Moulder forecasts Asciano’s stock will rise to $6.10 in the next 12 months, a 20% gain from its current share price.
Asciano’s share price has fallen even as container volumes at four Australian ports have increased. The combined container volumes of Brisbane, Fremantle, Melbourne and Sydney for June 2013 show a 6.4% increase against the previous corresponding period, according to Citigroup.
The June 2013 statistics also recorded the highest full container export growth of 3.5% since July 2012, says Citi.
This highlights “some early signs of the benefit of the weaker Australian dollar for exports,” Moulder says.
For newsletters' consensus on Asciano, see Cliona O'Dowd's Collected Wisdom.