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Better job market to push Fed

The jobs picture in the United States brightened in November as hiring was stronger than expected and the unemployment rate fell to a five-year low, data that increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing its stimulus efforts sooner rather than later.
By · 9 Dec 2013
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9 Dec 2013
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The jobs picture in the United States brightened in November as hiring was stronger than expected and the unemployment rate fell to a five-year low, data that increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing its stimulus efforts sooner rather than later.

Still, many observers cautioned that Friday's encouraging figures did not necessarily mean the central bank will act when policymakers meet later this month. A move early next year, they said, was the most likely scenario.

While the 203,000 jump in payrolls in November is an improvement over the 158,000-a-month rate of hiring that prevailed in the US summer, it is not much better than the 198,000 level in the first nine months of 2013.

"We think the chance of tapering this month has risen, but on balance we expect the Fed to wait a bit longer," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

While the return of hundreds of thousands of federal employees after October's government shutdown may have exaggerated the move in the unemployment rate for November, the continuing payroll gains suggest the economy has gained momentum very recently.

In November, the jobless rate dropped to 7 per cent. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Labour Department announcement had expected an increase of 185,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 percentage point to 7.2 per cent.

Although the holiday shopping season has had a mixed start, the retail sector added 22,000 jobs last month. Manufacturers hired 27,000 workers. And the overall participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 63 per cent, reversing a decline in recent months.

But the unemployment rate among workers aged 16 to 19 remains above 20 per cent.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The job market in the United States has shown improvement with a stronger-than-expected hiring rate in November, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7%.

The improved job market increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may ease its stimulus efforts sooner, although many observers believe a move is more likely early next year.

In November, there was a 203,000 jump in payrolls, which is an improvement over the 158,000-a-month rate during the US summer and slightly better than the 198,000 level in the first nine months of 2013.

In November, the retail sector added 22,000 jobs, and manufacturers hired 27,000 workers, contributing to the overall job growth.

The return of hundreds of thousands of federal employees after October's government shutdown may have exaggerated the drop in the unemployment rate for November.

Despite overall improvements, the unemployment rate among workers aged 16 to 19 remains above 20%.

The labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 63% in November, reversing a decline seen in recent months.

Economists surveyed before the Labor Department announcement expected an increase of 185,000 jobs and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 7.2%, but the actual figures exceeded these expectations.