Bet the Lodge: Labor shortens

Over the past week, the election betting markets have been reasonably calm, with the small improvement in Labor’s position in Newspoll underpinning a slight shortening in their odds to win the September 14 election.

The best odds available for Labor are $6.00 (with tab.com.au) while they are as short as $4.75 with Sportsbet and Luxbet. The hot favourite status for the Coalition is little changed although $1.17 is now available (with Luxbet) for those who reckon Tony Abbott and his team are a shoo-in at the poll.

Early in the week, when it appeared that Labor was under pressure and there was unsubstantiated mischief being made about leadership, Labor got out as wide as $8.00. These odds were snapped up once Newspoll revealed the two-party preferred gap at 4 points and Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

The so-called “exotic” betting on the election has a range of potentially interesting options.

Abbott remains an unbackable $1.02 favourite to lead the Liberal Party at the election, while Malcolm Turnbull is being kept safe at $6.00. For the Labor Party leadership, it is $2.00 for both Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, with Bill Shorten well in commission at $6.00 and the war-horse Simon Crean at $13.00. A week ago, Gillard was $1.60 favourite, Rudd was $2.40 and Shorten was $7.50, which suggests there has been some money on both Rudd and Shorten in the past week.

The current betting is $7.00 for the Coalition to win a majority in the Senate after the September 14 poll, while for the House of Representatives, the favourite for the number of seats won by the Greens is zero, at $1.62. For the Greens to win one seat, the odds are $2.20 and double-digit odds are available for more than one seat being won.

Odds are being offered on the informal vote in the House of Representatives. For 2 per cent or fewer informal votes, Sportsbet is offering $51.00, while the equal favourites at $2.75 are 4.01 to 5 per cent and 5.01 to 6 per cent. An informal vote at 8.01 per cent and over is also $51.00.

Sportsbet is even offering odds on the next Newspoll result. For those keen on this option, Labor being ahead in the poll in two-party preferred term is $15.00, Labor behind by 4 points is $4.00 (which is where the most recent poll result fell); Labor behind 8 points is $10.00 and 10 or more behind is $10.00 (there are also a range of other options).

Remember, only bet what you can afford to lose.

For those with a gambling problem, please see www.problemgambling.gov.au