BET THE LODGE: A punt both ways

It's election betting where you just can't lose.*

There was a curious opportunity that emerged yesterday with so many betting agencies offering odds on the federal election and each being driven by the news flow and weight of money. As you might expect, the political ructions in Canberra saw the betting odds fluctuate wildly with each bit of news. This meant it was possible to make money on the election, whichever side won.

Here is the example that was evident from around 09.00am until about 4.00pm yesterday.

For Labor to win the election, the odds were at $6.00 with one agency and with a different agency the Coalition was $1.24.

For the $6.00 on offer that was available at tab.com.au for Labor, you could bet $10.00. If Labor win, you'd get back $60.00. At the same time, you could have a $48.39 bet with Tom Waterhouse on the Coalition at $1.24 (as they were) and if they win, you'd also collect $60.00. (Waterhouse obviously got hit as the odds for the Coalition are now $1.15.)

Your outlay is a total of $58.39 in total and you're guaranteed to collect $60.00. That is, there is a tax free return of 2.76 per cent for just over five months.

In terms of the net change in the betting odds over the past week, there has been a margin move towards the Coalition. The best odds for Labor are out to $6.20 with Centrebet (were $6.00 a week ago), while the best odds for the Coalition are $1.15, at best, with a number of different agencies. A week ago, $1.17 was available for those wanting to back the Coalition.

One would have thought the Labor leadership was settled, but for those who live by conspiracy theories and think Prime Minister Julia Gillard is vulnerable ahead of the September 14 poll, Centrebet is offering $1.18, while Kevin Rudd is out the gate at $6.00. Bill Shorten is $10.00 to be Labor leader when the election day arrives.

There was no change in the odds for Liberal Party leader with Tony Abbott a hotter favourite than Black Caviar at $1.02.

In terms of the total number of seat won in the House of Representatives, Centrebet is offering a skinny $2.25 and favourite on the Coalition winning more than 101 seats, while Labor is $201.00 to register such a landslide. A hung parliament is seen unlikely, with $26.00 on offer for the status quo to remain.

There are still 25 weeks to polling day and at lot will happen between now and then and the betting odds are likely to change. Which way? Will the Coalition come into $1.02 as they did in New South Wales and Queensland before the state elections there? We’ll see.

*  The odds are subject to change and the bookmakers reserve the right to refuse bets. Wager only what you can afford to lose.

For those with a gambling problem, please see www.problemgambling.gov.au