Bendigo could buck the trend in second half

The banking sector has, by and large, been out of favour since the global financial crisis in 2008, but investors can look beyond such generalisations to find opportunities, if they use the right tools.

The banking sector has, by and large, been out of favour since the global financial crisis in 2008, but investors can look beyond such generalisations to find opportunities, if they use the right tools.

This week the Victorian president of the Australian Technical Analysts Association, Paul Ash, casts his eye over a second-tier player, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, and finds it an interesting proposition.

Bendigo's share price has taken a dive from February this year, reaching a low of $6.82 in late May. Ash looks at the situation using three important indicators from the technical analyst's armoury, all of which would have shown that the first half of the year was not the time to buy the stock.

First, the 30-day moving average was pointing downwards, a sign of weakness.

Second, the blue trend line was running down and remember, as they say in the markets, "the trend is your friend".

Third, signs of consolidation in March and April, under which he drew the horizontal support line, were shown to be a false dawn in May when the stock plunged to its low point.

Things turned around in June, and those signs have become positive. Both the trend line and the 30-day moving average are moving up and the share price has broken through the old support line at $7.42, which had turned into a resistance level once the stock fell through it. Since breaking through that resistance, the stock has risen by 9.9 per cent to its present level. The next resistance level will be at the February high of $8.30 and Ash says to keep your eyes peeled to see if Bendigo breaks through, which would be a further sign of strength.

Bendigo has a healthy fully franked dividend yield of 7.3 per cent, more than you can earn on deposit with the bank.

Earnings per share are expected to have fallen slightly in the year just past, and to rise in 2013.

The bank emerged from the old Bendigo Building Society in 1995 and merged with Adelaide Bank in 2007.

It has almost 900 outlets, including 190 company owned branches and 275 community banks, owned by the communities in which they operate.

This column is not financial advice.

rodmyr@gmail.com

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