AFL PREVIEW: Heat on the Pies

MELBOURNE v CARLTON (MCG, Friday, 7.40pm)

The Demons will be glad to get back to the 'G', where they're invariably competitive, and away from the killing fields of Etihad, where their record is atrocious. The bad news is they come up against a side that is playing almost as well as anyone in the comp. The Blues should have beaten Geelong last week; they had more clearances, disposals and scoring shots – but also a concussed, wonky-kicking ruckman. That ruckman, Robbie Warnock, has been ruled out this week with his injury. For the Dees, Luke Tapscott tore his hamstring last week so joins Col Garland, Tom Scully, Rohan Bail, Austin Wonaeamirri, Mark Jamar, Jack Grimes - and the suspended Jack Trengove - on the sidelines. We can't see Melbourne getting close here – as long as Carlton's motivation remains strong. Oddly, of the Blues' five wins (excluding Gold Coast), the biggest has been by 20 points. As a bet, think about taking Carlton by under 39.5 points (at $2.25).

BPL TIP: Carlton by 29 points
TAB Sportsbet: Melb $4.00, Carl $1.22

‪NORTH MELBOURNE v SYDNEY (Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm)

North dominated in the first half against Brisbane last week - winning the clearances 25-9 – yet (as is their way) couldn't convert that possession into goals. For the first time, we saw Brad Scott's frustrations boil over publicly and he gave both barrels to Scott McMahon and Scott Thompson for undisciplined mistakes in the backline. Their ears will still be ringing after that – and one imagines the Roos had a tough hit-out on the training track this week. Of those who might get a call-up, Cameron Pedersen continued his outstanding VFL form with eight goals in Werribee's win, while Levi Greenwood took another step in his return from an ankle injury. Sydney has won four games this year but appears to be just chugging along. Its Achilles heel is its scoring power, averaging just 83 points a game (lower than all bar the bottom three sides and St Kilda). We think North, at home, will hit back hard and score a much-needed win. I'd take the Roos to win by 1-19 points (at $4.35).

BPL TIP: North by 12 points
TAB Sportsbet: NM $2.05, Syd $1.72

FREMANTLE v ST KILDA (Patersons Stadium, Saturday, 1.10pm)

The Dockers' most important player, Aaron Sandilands, will miss a month with a toe injury, which evens up this contest a bit. Former Adelaide ruckman Jon Griffin has been guaranteed his debut by coach Mark Harvey, having averaged more than 36 hit-outs in seven WAFL games this season. Freo snapped a two-game losing streak with last weekend's 52-point win over Port Adelaide and, pleasingly for Harvey, 13 individual goal kickers contributed to the win. St Kilda scored its second win of the year by getting back to basics, and doing what it does best – winning the contested ball, and playing one-on-one accountable football. Yet that win over Melbourne didn't really paper over the cracks: the Saints are still slow as treacle and simply cannot kick goals. Their only score over 100 points this season came last week (106) against the hapless Dees. If this is a dry, sunny game, and the outfield's firm, the Dockers could win by plenty. If that's the case, I'd have a look at Freo by 39.5 points (at $4.25).

BPL TIP: Fremantle by 42 points
TAB Sportsbet: $1.55, StK $2.35

GOLD COAST v GEELONG (Metricon Stadium, Saturday, 7.20pm)

The interest in this match, of course, centres not so much on the result as Gary Ablett taking on his old teammates from Geelong for the first time. (As well as the unveiling, of course, of the Suns' new $140 million home ground, Metricon Stadium). After a stellar career at the Cats, Ablett chose to head north and help the fledgling AFL outfit (for a price, naturally) and it will be interesting to see his former mates' reaction to that on the field. I can see Geelong becoming decidedly disinterested about this match – even allowing for the early niggling and sledging of Ablett. (Already, No.1 ruckman Brad Ottens has been touted as a player likely to be rested). The Cats have had very tough games against Carlton and Collingwood in the past fortnight; it would be only natural for them to switch off after they've got this contest won. There are much bigger fish to fry in the second half of the season. The bye helped Gold Coast to rest a few tired bodies, and they have almost a full squad to pick from. I'd look at taking Gold Coast at the line, 65.5 points, (at $1.90).

BPL TIP: Geelong by 49 points
TAB Sportsbet: GC $10.00, Geel $1.03

RICHMOND v PORT ADELAIDE (TIO Stadium, Saturday, 8.10pm)

The Tigers travel up to Darwin for this game, as part of a three-year deal with the NT Government, but TIO Stadium has actually been a happy hunting ground for their opponents, Port. The Tiges were due to play in Darwin against an Indigenous All Star team in February but the match was moved due to bad weather. So this will be a new experience for them, and they'll be out of their comfort zone. But the venue is unlikely to have much of an impact on the result because Richmond is flying (winning four of the past five, and in grand style, too) while Port is, well, not flying. In fact, it has just about stalled altogether and sits on the bottom of the ladder. If Richmond can keep up the same intensity as the past month, and Jake King, Nathan Foley, Dustin Martin and co can win plenty of the ball, a big win looms. Jack Riewoldt is a chance to kick a bag and the Tigers appeal as a good prospect for the highest score of the round (at $5.00).

BPL TIP: Richmond by 51 points
TAB Sportsbet: Rich $1.20, Port $4.25

ADELAIDE v BRISBANE (AAMI Stadium, Sunday, 12.40pm)

On the back of captain Jonathan Brown's return from injury last week, Brisbane scored its first win of the season. And, buoyed by that result, they'll give themselves some chance of making it two in a row here. The Crows were travelling along beautifully for three quarters against Collingwood last week – until they were smashed in the final term and conceded 11 goals. And that's the Crows' problem: they find it so hard to score that good teams only need to play well for a quarter to beat them. Adelaide 2009 club champion Bernie Vince is likely to return to the midfield and it's up to him and his mates to ensure that Kurt Tippett, Patrick Dangerfield and co get a decent supply of the ball up forward. At the other end, Ben Rutten looms as a logical opponent for Brown, and he won't be pushed around by the Lions skipper. We're picking the Crows – but with no great confidence. Take Brisbane at the line, 24.5 points, at $1.90.

BPL TIP: Adelaide by 9 points
TAB Sportsbet: Adel $1.25, Bris $3.75

COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST (MCG, Sunday, 2.10pm)

At first glance, the Eagles are way over the odds in this match. Of course they'll meet much stiffer resistance from the Pies – at the MCG – than they got from the Dogs at Patersons Stadium last week, but $5.00 for a win (with the line set at 34.5 points)? Sheesh. Maybe the oddsmakers don't have Foxtel installed. Having said that, the Pies (after a very pedestrian start) were super-impressive in the way they stepped on the gas and blasted 11 goals past Adelaide in the last quarter. Alan Toovey could come in after copping that heavy hit from Tom Hawkins in the Geelong but ruckman Darren Jolly could miss again with his knee problem and Leigh Brown will have to prove his fitness. If the two big men fail to get up, 204cm defender Lachlan Keeffe - who was an emergency last week - could come in for his senior debut. The Pies' class should see them get over the line but it will be fascinating to see how the raft of brilliant Eagles' youngsters – Kennedy, Shuey, Darling, Rosa, Selwood, Naitanui and co – handle themselves on the big stage, against the premiership team. WC at the line ( 34.5pts) appeals as a bet.

BPL TIP: Collingwood by 15 points
TAB Sportsbet: Coll $1.15, WC $5.00

WESTERN BULLDOGS v HAWTHORN (Etihad Stadium, Sunday, 4.40pm)

This shapes up as just the sort of game Hawthorn could lose: their opponent is coming off a bad loss and fired up to go, the Hawks – who always seem to be in danger of lapsing into complacency – not entirely switched on. But the 2011 Bulldogs – even with the inclusion of Adam Cooney and maybe Barry Hall this week – do not present the same danger as they once did. The Hawks could go to sleep for half a game and still win. Even without their mobile phones, they made a statement last week at the SCG, beating Sydney by 46 points for the first win at the cricket ground since 2003, and moving to third on the ladder in the process. Just as importantly, Buddy Franklin was 'on', with six goals, 28 disposals and nine marks. After their 20-goal embarrassment, the Bulldogs have promised a much improved effort this week. Daniel Giansiracusa's 200th game should give them a bit of extra motivation. I think the Dogs might jump out of the gates, and even lead at half-time, before being reined in by the Hawks. That half-time full-time double (WB-Haw) is $6.25.

BPL TIP: Hawthorn by 29 points.
TAB Sportsbet: WB $3.30, Haw $1.30

BYE: Essendon
BPL Tipping Tally: 51

BackPageLead is a sports opinion and commentary website. Reproduced with permission