Switching leaders won't bury Labor's mistakes for long

IN A moment of defiance the night before he lost his job, Kevin Rudd declared: "I was elected by the people of Australia to do a job. I was not elected by the factional leaders of the Australian Labor Party." It was his last spectacular misjudgment as prime minister.

The next morning demonstrated the truth. The factional leaders took his office away. He didn't even contest it. And since then, the journalists have had Bill Shorten, Stephen Conroy, Mark Arbib, David Feeney and co lining up to demand credit for their nice piece of handiwork.

We talk in this country of the "Rudd" government or the "Howard" government as if the public votes directly for a particular prime minister. In truth, they vote for a political party represented by a local member. The members of parliament decide who will be their leader and therefore prime minister. In the case of Labor, the factional leaders decide on behalf of MPs.

Rudd was installed a year before the last election. Labor strategists wanted to avoid a contest between Liberal and Labor, between the Coalition's record and Labor's, between the Coalition team and Labor's team. They marketed a product called Kevin 07 (new leadership, fresh ideas) against an ageing John Howard set to retire. Rudd was preferred prime minister. He still was in 2010. But the Kevin 07 product had outlived its usefulness.

A leadership switch before an election is now standard Labor practice. In Queensland it was to Anna Bligh (successful), New South Wales to Morris Iemma (successful), Victoria to John Brumby (wait and see), Tasmania to David Bartlett (successful), Western Australia to Alan Carpenter (unsuccessful) and the Northern Territory to Paul Henderson (successful). The switch to Julia Gillard was not done entirely behind closed doors as was mostly the case at the state level. But, in the end, Rudd went quietly.

A leadership switch gives a government the chance to bury its mistakes. In this case the idea is not just to bury the mistakes of Rudd the mining tax, the insulation batts, the blowout in the budget deficit but to bury Rudd himself. It is extraordinary that having been the leader, having announced he is running for re-election, having asked for a position, he is now refused an appointment to Labor's frontbench. He is not in Labor's top 20.

This illustrates how touchy the current cabinet crew is about the record of the past two years. In truth, we know Gillard and Wayne Swan supported the 40 per cent resources tax, the wasteful spending on insulation batts and school halls, and softening border protection. But they are so keen to distance themselves that they have loaded all these policies into Rudd's basket and buried him with them.

Any keen reader of the weekend newspapers would have noticed how many stories there were to the effect that Rudd was a one-man band. Kevin 07 is now Kevin 0'zero: a loner who consulted no one and listened to no one. Unless he is made solely to blame, there will be a bit of collective responsibility shared around to a whole lot of people who don't want to be accountable.

So Prime Minister Gillard has dropped the 40 per cent resources tax (two months ago she claimed miners were running a fear campaign and it would not harm the industry). Now she will stop the boats. Last financial year we had a record number of illegal boat arrivals (5600), so there is a problem to be fixed. But who was responsible for the problem? It is hard to blame the previous government because Labor says it was too harsh on illegal arrivals. It cannot be the fault of the current Immigration Minister because he is still in his post. No fault can be ascribed to the Deputy Prime Minister then or now. So it must have been Rudd. It is obvious why he cannot be brought back into cabinet.

When the public first saw Rudd, they liked him. He was not Howard, so he could freshen up and modernise a few things without being too radical. After three years, the public realised that it was not enough that Rudd was not someone else, that he had to be someone himself with views and commitments and values. They began to worry about what these were.

Now we are told Gillard is not Rudd. Although she stood shoulder to shoulder with him, she doesn't like the mining tax, illegal boat arrivals, etc. She will get a grace period. But she has a past and it will catch up especially the wasted spending on school halls. She too has a shelf life. She must get to an election before it expires. Mistakes can catch up very suddenly. Just ask Rudd.

Peter Costello was federal treasurer from 1996 to 2007.