PUNTING SPECTATOR: AFL action

After staying away from the AFL last week, Dr Turf is very keen for a bet. He's also got some specials in the NRL and a late-night punt on the Super 14s.

G’day punters. Well, what an absolute ripper round of AFL this weekend, especially after having a punting bye at the sport last week. It was difficult staying out last week and I am reminded of an old racehorse trainer who just had to have a bet every week saying, "I can’t let them go around naked". Mind you, he did end up fly blown.

Value is the name of the game and snooping out the "overs” will decide whether we finish in front or behind – there endeth the lesson.

At least this week there does look to be some action. Let's have a look at the prices, which come this week from Betstar. As always, prices are subject to change


TeamPrice
Geelong
1.19
Brisbane Lions
5.00
Hawthorn
1.56
Collingwood
2.50
Richmond
2.45
St Kilda
1.58
Adelaide
1.47
Nth Melbourne
2.80
Sydney Swans
1.50
Western Bulldogs
2.70
Melbourne
3.60
Fremantle
1.32
Essendon
3.60
Port Adelaide
1.32

Collingwood have been a bit iffy over the past couple of weeks but they do have the ability to shut down the Hawks run and I do reckon they’re worth something at the 13 ½ and even a nibble at the $2.50 is worth your consideration.

I’ve got a feeling that Essendon’s’ season is about to completely disintegrate. More injuries and three first gamers suggest that Port Adelaide are not only absolute morals, which the price of $1.32 might suggest, but I’m sure the line of -21 ½ will be comfortably covered, perhaps by half time. This could be a flogging.

The NRL season is chugging along quite nicely and so are we. But this a shocking round to bet on (it won’t stop me completely) with players having to back up from the City v Country clash on Friday night. Here are the prices:


TeamPrice
Newcastle
1.80
Gold Coast
2.05
Penrith
1.92
Parramatta
1.92
Wests Tigers
2.45
Brisbane
1.58
NZ Warriors
1.50
Canberra
2.70
South Sydney
2.90
Nth Queensland
1.43


The Titans have done wonders for our wallets this season, but I will be staying out of their game. I think we can get some cash on Sunday. Now normally I love a long sleep in on a Sunday so I am deeply indebted to the NRL for programming the New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders at 2pm. That gives me every opportunity to invest on the Raiders with a 6 ½ point start. The Kiwis have a good record at home but they have a growing injury list. The Raiders, on the other hand, have had a good start to the season and can score points quickly. The only worry is that from their past ten outings away from home, they have only one win. But as I said, the Warriors do look light on for troops.

I have truly been admiring the Armani suits that the South Sydney players have been getting around in lately, and I have worked out how to get one – just bet against them very week. If I’d twigged earlier in the season, I’d have a wardrobe full of them by now. I cannot fathom how North Queensland only have to give up 6 ½ points to them on Sunday. They should be well covered before the Souths fans have finished their first chardy.

Now, for those of you who suffer from insomnia, I have a cure for you on Saturday night. There is a game of Super 14’s on Sunday morning at 1am that I believe you need to stay up for. The Stormers are at home in Cape Town to the Brumbies, but I think the side from the ACT can serve it up to the home side. The Stormers have won their last four matches as they approach the playoffs, but you have to go back to 1998 to find the last time they got a win over the Brumbies. Naturally there have been a lot of changes to both sides in that time, but history has a funny way of repeating itself. The Brumbies staggered over the line last week with a last-minute try against the Lions, but the Stormers were equally unimpressive when 10 point winners over the Highlanders. There is an 8 point start available for the Brumbies and I’ll be putting my hand out for a bit of that.

Good luck and good punting and hey, let’s be careful out there.