Plain truths you will never hear
■We've decided not to have a rights issue because the share price clearly shouldn't have jumped 50 per cent in the past month, is terribly overinflated and we don't want to burn all our shareholders putting them in at the top.
■The independent valuation tells us the company is worth less than we thought, so we've told the bidder they're paying too much.
■We have done a private placement and didn't take a load of discounted stock ourselves or give any to our mates at your expense.
■We thought we would tell you that unseasonal weather patterns impacted first-half profit, but the truth is we don't have an excuse.
■We would still be announcing this profit downgrade even if continuous disclosure rules didn't exist.
■When we say the proceeds of the capital raising will be used for working capital purposes, what we really mean, of course, is that the company is just one of the many listed companies used to turn your capital into our salaries while the company actually does nick all.
■Big broker research says sell BHP.
■Big broker research recommendation on BHP makes clients money.
■Big broker has a target price on Rio that isn't 30 per cent above the current share price.
■Resources company boss announces that at current commodity prices all they are doing is burning all the cash they made in the boom and the best thing to do is close the mine while shareholders are still ahead and before the share price hits zero.
■It's not really a "conviction buy", it's just that with our track record no one takes any notice of us when we simply call it a "buy".
■When we say it's a "speculative buy", we really mean the managing director is a mate and you shouldn't touch it with a barge pole.
■The GDP number came in below the government's budget forecast.
■The Prime Minister has decided not to spend the next three years watching his back and trying to win the next election because he thinks it's much more important to run the country instead.
■Politician is elected on his skills and suitability for government not his personality.
■Ten unionised workers are sacked and the media have decided not to use it as the lead story on every TV news bulletin and newspaper.
■Ten thousand private-sector workers are sacked and the media have decided to use it as the lead story on every TV news bulletin and newspaper.
■The economy is flying along and is clearly not sustainable, so rather than employ too many people we are going to bank the money so we don't have to sack everyone later.
Marcus Padley is a stockbroker and the author of sharemarket newsletter Marcus Today.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
If a company says it won’t proceed with a rights issue because the share price has jumped (for example 50% in a month) it’s saying it doesn’t want to force existing shareholders to buy new shares at what management believes is an artificially high level. In plain terms they’re trying to avoid ‘burning’ shareholders by diluting them at a top-of-market price.
An independent valuation that comes in below management’s expectations is a warning sign: it can justify rejecting takeover bids (the company may tell a bidder they’re paying too much) and highlights a gap between market hype and underlying value. Everyday investors should treat such valuations as a prompt to dig into assumptions rather than accept headline prices at face value.
Private placements can be controversial because they often involve issuing stock off-market. The article points out the common worry that management or ‘mates’ get discounted stock, which can dilute retail holders. While some companies insist they didn’t give favoured allocations, investors should check placement terms and who received the shares.
According to the article’s candid take, companies would often announce profit downgrades even without continuous disclosure rules — implying responsibility or the need to preserve credibility. In short, downgrades are usually about real performance issues, not just regulatory compliance.
The phrase ‘working capital purposes’ is broad. The article jokes it can mean using investor capital to pay salaries or keep the business running rather than funding growth projects. Investors should ask for specifics — inventory, payables, short-term debt — so they know exactly how the money will be spent.
The article is sceptical about large-broker research — noting headlines like ‘sell BHP’ or target prices for Rio that don’t appear overly optimistic. Broker reports can be useful, but they can also reflect conflicts of interest or marketing. Everyday investors should compare multiple sources, check a broker’s track record, and understand potential biases before acting.
Broker language can be loaded. The piece wryly suggests ‘conviction buy’ is sometimes used when a broker wants to be heard, not because they’re certain, while ‘speculative buy’ can hint at higher risk or even personal connections to management. Treat these labels as starting points and read the research notes for reasons and risk disclosures.
The article is by Marcus Padley, who is described as a stockbroker and the author of the sharemarket newsletter Marcus Today. That background explains the frank, market-focused tone of the observations.
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