Summary: I think housing rates are headed higher as each of the big four banks opts for less housing growth and an increase in margins. If the RBA lowers official interest rates, the banks will get a double boost – not following the RBA down in housing loans while lowering bank deposit rates. Meanwhile, the next stage in the debate is to what extent superannuation benefits are to be reduced.
Key take-out: If I am right that housing interest rates will rise and house prices will stabilise, it will be hard to generate higher profits.
Key beneficiaries: General investors. Category: Bank shares, economy.