Interest rates likely to be on hold, for now

Most economists cited in the article say an interest rate change is unlikely at the Reserve Bank's meeting on Tuesday, with monetary policy seen as gaining traction and the market leaning toward a hold.

Yes — some economists in the article predict the RBA could begin lifting interest rates as early as October or in Q4, though this is presented as a possible timing rather than a certainty.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham says optimism about China's future growth and recent improvements in the labour market mean the case for further easing is over, and he has pencilled the next move as a hike in Q4.

Credit Suisse data referenced in the article suggests the official cash rate will stay on hold at 3 per cent, with the market putting roughly an 8 per cent chance on a 25 basis point reduction.

The article notes that consumer sentiment and the housing market are improving in large part due to low interest rates, according to the economists quoted.

Citi economists Josh Williamson and Paul Brennan said the main development since the last RBA meeting was the escalation of the financial crisis in Cyprus, but they view it as unlikely to influence domestic RBA policy.

The article says markets still generally believe cuts are more likely than hikes, but HSBC's Paul Bloxham argues this view reflects downside global risks rather than local Australian developments.

Based on the article, investors should watch RBA meeting outcomes, official cash rate updates (currently noted at 3 per cent), labour market improvements, Chinese growth momentum, and broader global risk events — all factors the quoted economists cite as relevant to future interest rate moves.