Inner city pads are on the outer for downsizing baby boomers

THE stereotype of the baby boomer downsizing from the suburbs to an inner-city pad is a myth, according to demographers.

By InvestSMART · 25 Jul 2011

By InvestSMART ·
25 Jul 2011

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THE stereotype of the baby boomer downsizing from the suburbs to an inner-city pad is a myth, according to demographers.

But the reality a boom in empty-nesters aged 50 to 69 living on Melbourne's Mornington Peninsula is likely to cause headaches for government and aged-care services and may be contributing to a decade-long rise in bayside house prices.

More than half Melbourne's suburbs where the population is heavily skewed towards an empty-nester age group lie south of Frankston between Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait, data from demographers .id consulting shows.

In suburbs such as Flinders, Merricks, Blairgowrie, Arthurs Seat, Rye, Red Hill and Tyabb, more than one-third of the population is aged 50-69. In Portsea and Sorrento, empty-nesters make up nearly half the population, the data shows.

Demographer Matthew Deacon said Melbourne's empty-nesters preferred their existing homes or sea-change locations on the Mornington Peninsula and Bass Coast to the bright city lights.

Mr Deacon said migration charts showed people primarily moved into inner-city areas between the ages of 18 and 24 and moved out in their 30s, when they started to have children.

Downsizing choices were influenced by the cost of moving, increasing numbers of children returning to live with their parents and a lack of smaller housing close to the family home.

In country areas, forecasts showed the number of empty-nesters was likely to diminish in proportion to the rest of the population as fertility rates revived and younger migrants moved to regional areas, he said.

In Southbank and Docklands, 12-14 per cent of the population is aged 50-69.

Point Cook, popular with young couples starting families, has only 10 per cent in the same age group. One city suburb attracting a higher proportion is affluent East Melbourne.

The popularity of the Mornington Peninsula as a retirement destination is set to grow with the completion of the $2.3 billion Frankston freeway bypass likely to fuel the conversion of holiday homes to permanent accommodation in empty-nester suburbs like Balnarring, McCrae and Somers.

Peninsula Health spokesman John Jukes said people moving to the peninsula tended to have health insurance and there were plenty of private hospitals to service them. "We haven't seen any substantial growth in our elective surgery," Mr Jukes said. "It's entirely possible that the impact hasn't been felt yet."

Figures from the state's valuer-general show bayside suburbs like Safety Beach, Red Hill, Balnarring and McCrae grew sharply in value over the past decade.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Is the idea that baby boomers are downsizing to inner-city apartments true?

No — demographers say the stereotype that baby boomers are trading suburban homes for inner-city pads is a myth. Many empty-nesters prefer to stay in their existing homes or move to sea-change locations like Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula and Bass Coast rather than inner-city apartments.

Where in Melbourne are most empty-nesters (aged 50–69) choosing to live?

More than half of Melbourne’s suburbs with a high share of empty-nesters lie south of Frankston between Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait. Suburbs with large proportions of 50–69 year olds include Flinders, Merricks, Blairgowrie, Arthurs Seat, Rye, Red Hill and Tyabb, while Portsea and Sorrento have nearly half their populations in that age group.

How is the empty-nester boom affecting bayside house prices and property values?

The influx of empty-nesters into bayside suburbs is likely contributing to a decade-long rise in local house prices. State valuer-general figures show sharp growth in values in bayside areas such as Safety Beach, Red Hill, Balnarring and McCrae over the past 10 years.

Will the Frankston freeway bypass influence where retirees choose to live?

Yes — the $2.3 billion Frankston freeway bypass is expected to boost the Mornington Peninsula’s appeal as a retirement destination and spur the conversion of holiday homes into permanent residences in suburbs like Balnarring, McCrae and Somers.

Could the rise in empty-nesters create challenges for health and aged-care services?

Potentially. Demographers warn the empty-nester boom may cause headaches for government and aged‑care services, though Peninsula Health notes many newcomers have private health insurance and that they haven't seen a substantial increase in elective surgery so far — the full impact may not have been felt yet.

What factors influence baby boomers’ downsizing choices?

Downsizing decisions are shaped by the cost of moving, more adult children returning to live with parents, and a shortage of smaller homes close to family — all of which make inner-city downsizing less attractive for many boomers.

Do inner-city areas like Southbank and Docklands have many empty-nesters?

No — inner-city suburbs such as Southbank and Docklands have only about 12–14% of their populations aged 50–69. Inner-city areas tend to attract people aged 18–24, who then often move out in their 30s when starting families.

What are the forecast trends for empty-nesters in regional and country areas?

Forecasts suggest the proportion of empty-nesters in some country areas may decline relative to the rest of the population as fertility rates recover and younger migrants move to regional locations, increasing the share of younger residents.