Bureau trims forecast for wheat output
Farmers are expected to harvest 24.5 million tonnes in 2013-14, down slightly from 25.4 million tonnes estimated in June. Even so, this would be up from 22.1 million tonnes a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said.
Exports may reach 19.5 million tonnes in 2013-14 from a previous forecast of 19.6 million tonnes.
Wheat prices have fallen 17 per cent this year on expectations that increased production in Canada and Russia will result in a record global output.
World food prices fell for the fourth month last month to their lowest level in more than a year, on lower grain prices. Corn has slumped 34 per cent this year and soybeans 4.4 per cent, the United Nations says. A smaller-than-expected Australian crop is "a major risk for the world" and could help push prices higher, brokerage Macquarie Group said.
"Below-average rainfall since mid-winter in parts of NSW, Queensland and the northern growing areas of Western Australia has adversely affected crop development," ABARES executive director Paul Morris said. "Temperatures and rainfall have generally been favourable in South Australia, Victoria and the southern parts of Western Australia."
West Australian growers will collect 7.3 million tonnes in 2013-14, compared with 8.8 million tonnes forecast in June, the bureau said. That will still put the state ahead of NSW, last year's top producer, which will harvest 7.2 million tonnes.
CBH Group, Western Australia's biggest grain handler, said last week that it expected to receive about 6.5 million tonnes of wheat. The company collects and exports about 95 per cent of the state's grain harvest.
"Below-average rainfall was received in the northern regions of the Western Australian grains belt, while rainfall was average to very much above average for much of the southern region," ABARES said.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
ABARES has trimmed its 2013–14 Australian wheat forecast to 24.5 million tonnes, down from a June estimate of 25.4 million tonnes but up from 22.1 million tonnes the previous year.
ABARES cut its export forecast slightly to 19.5 million tonnes for 2013–14 from a previous 19.6 million tonnes. Because Australia is the world’s third-largest wheat shipper, a smaller domestic crop could curb supplies available for export.
ABARES said below‑average rainfall since mid‑winter in parts of New South Wales, Queensland and the northern growing areas of Western Australia adversely affected crop development, while conditions were generally favourable in South Australia, Victoria and southern Western Australia.
Western Australian growers are expected to collect about 7.3 million tonnes in 2013–14 (revised down from a June forecast of 8.8 million tonnes), which would still put WA slightly ahead of New South Wales, forecast to harvest about 7.2 million tonnes.
CBH Group said it expects to receive about 6.5 million tonnes of wheat. The company collects and exports roughly 95% of Western Australia’s grain harvest, making its receipt estimate a key indicator for the state’s supply.
Wheat prices have fallen about 17% this year amid expectations of increased production in Canada and Russia that could deliver record global output. World food prices also fell for a fourth month to their lowest level in more than a year, with corn down 34% and soybeans down 4.4% year‑to‑date, according to the UN.
Yes. Brokerage Macquarie Group warned that a smaller‑than‑expected Australian crop is “a major risk for the world” and could help push grain prices higher, especially because reduced Australian output can tighten exportable supplies.
Investors may want to monitor updated harvest and export tonnage figures, regional rainfall and crop‑condition reports, CBH Group receipt updates for Western Australia, and global production forecasts (notably Canada and Russia), since these factors are cited in the ABARES report as drivers of supply and price movements.
Call 1300 880 160
Start a chat
Schedule a call
