BREAKFAST DEALS: The new Packer

Consolidated Media, Seven Media Group, Crown, Melco Crown Entertainment

While James Packer welcomes new baby Jackson, the prospect of a media deal between two of Australia's best-known billionaires (now friendly again after a share raid last year) has got the market talking. According to The Australian Financial Review, one suggestion is a merger between Consolidated Media and Seven Media Group, thereby allowing Packer to focus on gaming by exiting the media sector and giving Perth's Kerry Stokes a direct stake in pay TV operator Foxtel and Premier Media Group. This could be achieved through Seven Media Group making a takeover offer for Consolidated Media, with Packer selling his 45 per cent stake in Consolidated Media and private equity firm KKR selling its Seven Media Group interest. The speculation comes as good things are tipped for Seven Media Group, with a media source forecasting pleasing EBITDA of more than $300 million for 2010 and perhaps $400 million the following year, according to The Sydney Morning Herald, thereby leaving $1 billion of equity (less debt) and valuing Seven Network's stake at a better-than-expected $470 million. Elsewhere in James Packer news, talk that casino group Crown might offload its Macau Crown stake to Melco Crown Entertainment has been dismissed as "total nonsense” by the US casino giant's chief. CEO Lawrence Ho has told analysts that he and Packer see a lot of potential growth for the Macau casinos, according to Bloomberg. The rumours were sparked by Sterne, Agee & Leach analyst David Bain, who said lawyers had been brought in to look at a share transfer.

National Australia Bank, ANZ Banking Group

While its AXA Asia Pacific ambitions and UK plans dominate market talk, National Australia Bank has taken a small step in boosting its US presence. The NAB's Great Western business has paid $US50 million to buy F&M Bank in Iowa from Citizens Republic Bancorp, in the process picking up 10 branches across the state, about $US125 million in loans and a $US410 million deposit book. NAB, which has flagged an interest in the US agribusiness market, bought Great Western in 2007 and has been behind a series of bolt-on acquisitions over the past year. Meanwhile, the February 6 deadline for the exclusivity agreement between AMP and AXA Asia Pacific Holdings' major shareholder, French insurer AXA SA, looms. And elsewhere in banking, and ANZ Banking Group is believed most affected by the collapse of Victorian civil contractor Akron, with the Herald Sun reporting that the bank's exposure comes in at under $18 million, largely written off.

Energy Developments, Pacific Equity Partners

Pacific Equity Partners' hopes of compulsorily acquiring Energy Developments have been dashed by significant shareholder Investors Mutual, which wasn't sufficiently impressed by PEP's 1 cent-per-share increase (the offer is now priced at $2.76) to sell into the long-running bid. The prospect of a share price dive for Energy Developments wasn't enough to convince the target's largest shareholder – it has consistently pointed to an independent expert's report valuing the company at between $3.17 and $4.07 per share.

Arrow Energy

It's not the most surprising news given the task at hand, but comments from Arrow Energy that a share sale or asset selldown are among the options to help fund the development of its massive Queensland coal seam gas fields and the Fisherman's Landing liquefied natural gas project has got tongues wagging about where-to next for the coal seam gas company. UBS is advising Arrow on funding options, including corporate and project debt finance, with some analysts suggesting a market approach is unnecessary, while others have suggested a final investment decision on Fisherman's Landing could miss the March-end deadline. Chief executive Shaun Scott reckons infrastructure groups could be interested.

Wrapping up

Sugar marketing body Queensland Sugar – which recently took a near-10 per cent stake in the unlisted Tully Sugar, a target of pure sugar play Maryborough Sugar Factory – has lifted its export guidance after favourable rains, according to Reuters, saying exports could lift to 3.1 million tonnes for FY11, from 2.9 for the 2009 season. This comes as building products and sugar company CSR awaits a Federal Court decision today on whether a proposed demerger of its sugar and renewable energy business can be put to shareholders. And there's yet another acquisition by Toll Holdings – this time the transport and logistics giant has picked up US freight forwarder Summit Logistics International for $80 million, a deal it expects to be earnings accretive within a year. Elsewhere, internet service provider TPG Telecom has surprised many by announcing a $70 million capital raising in the midst of a controversial takeover offer for PIPE Networks. And finally, the shock of the RBA's rate decision pales in comparison to the shock of a silver donut employee, from Macquarie Private Wealth, when he realised his office-time perve session was being broadcast live on Channel Seven. And coming up on Deals TV, we'll be looking at Rio Tinto, News Corp and CanWest and movements in the resources sector.