AFL PREVIEW: Dogfight looms for the Dons

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ST KILDA V COLLINGWOOD (Friday, 7.40pm, Etihad Stadium)

It will be fascinating to see just how far St Kilda has come in the past month or two. The Saints have won six in a row since their bye in round 14, and are building some irresistible momentum. What will work in their favour on Friday night is the venue. The Saints have not beaten the Pies in their last four games at the MCG, but have won their last two meetings at Etihad, the most recent of which was in Round 3 last year. The smaller confines of the ground play to the Saints' strengths and allow them to control the tempo of the game. Although this is obviously the sternest test they've faced since Round 10, when the Maggies hammered them by 57 points at the 'G. Zac Dawson should come straight back into the team to line up on Travis Cloke after serving a one-game suspension. Chris Dawes (hand) and Sharrod Wellingham (groin) face fitness tests at Collingwood while Harry O'Brien is likely to be available after resting a sore knee. The Pies' percentage of 186 after 18 games is a remarkable figure, and indicative of just how dominant they've been this season, boasting the most potent attack and most miserly defence. The Saints will push them here – and there won't be much in it at half-time – but the Pies' trademark strong finish should deliver them another win. Worth looking at the Saints as the low-scoring team for Round 21 at $5.50.

BPL Tip: Collingwood by 27 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: StK $5.75, Coll $1.12

HAWTHORN V PORT ADELAIDE (Saturday, 2.10pm, MCG)

A good time for the Hawks to be facing Port because, let's face it, the mob from Alberton are providing only minimal resistance at the moment. And the Hawks are coming off a six-day break after their tough, slogging win over North Melbourne in the Launceston chill. But the record between these two teams at the MCG is surprising: Port have won four of the past five, the Hawks' only triumph coming by 11 points last season. So the venue won't have much fear for the Power – it's just Hawthorn's champion line-up that will scare them. Buddy Franklin escaped sanction from the MRP this week and has to be due a blowout game sometime soon – like an eight- or nine-goal haul. And this is the week to do it. Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell and co in the midfield will give Buddy and Cyril Rioli enough supply of the ball so it could turn into a rout. The Power could be bolstered by the returns of Troy Chaplin (who could line up on Franklin), Matt Thomas, Dean Brogan and Alipate Carlile. But they're in rebuilding mode, Port, and won't seriously be thinking of winning – just being competitive.

BPL Tip: Hawthorn by 70 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Haw $1.01, Port $13.00

FREMANTLE V CARLTON (Saturday, 1.10pm, Patersons Stadium)

The AFL player who is arguably the most important to his team's fortunes, Fremantle's Aaron Sandilands, is likely to return from a toe injury this week with the Dockers' season on the line. The star big man has played just once in 10 weeks, but coach Mark Harvey has declared he is prepared to roll the dice against Carlton. As a result – and also because the ninth-placed Freo need to make a statement against a decent side – we think they will be very competitive here, and give the Blues a fright. Carlton has won just once in its last eight trips to Perth. They'll probably get Andrew Carrazzo and the important Jarrad Waite back from injury, but they've both missed a fair bit of footy so won't be at their best. Freo has fallen out of the top eight for the first time since Round 2 and their season hangs in the balance. They've got a tough run home and if they're going to make anything of season 2010, they need to win this one. We think that ought to be motivation enough to cause an upset.

BPL Tip: Fremantle by 10 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Frem $3.00, Carl $1.36

WESTERN BULLDOGS V ESSENDON (Saturday, 7.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

Plenty at stake for the Bombers here: beat the Dogs and they should be well on the way to booking a finals' berth. The Dogs, of course, will be out to spoil that particular party – and want to finish a disappointing season on a high. The Bombers got their James Hird-led campaign off to a great start when they surprised the Bulldogs in Round 1 to win by nine goals. The Scraggers have been on the back foot ever since. They retain some mathematical hope of making the finals but, realistically, they're no chance. Adam Cooney and Shaun Higgins, who both have knee soreness, are some chance to return while Dale Morris, who was a late withdrawal from the round 19 loss to West Coast with groin soreness, is likely to be recalled. Of course the Dogs can win but, at this pointy end of the season, it's often down to motivation: which team has more to play for? On that score, it's undoubtedly the Bombers, who have too much at stake to let this slip.

BPL Tip: Essendon by 21 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: WB $1.95, Ess $1.80

BRISBANE V GOLD COAST (Saturday, 7.10pm, Gabba)

Gold Coast scored a memorable win over its intra-state rival in the first QClash in Round 7. If the Suns are to repeat the dose here, they'll need captain Gary Ablett – who has tweaked a hamstring – back in the team and firing. If he's unavailable, it's very hard to see the fledgling side mounting a serious challenge at the Gabba. Brisbane will be spitting chips after their last-gasp loss to Adelaide last week, when they led for much of the game. And Irishman Pearce Hanley might have got a bollocking from the coach after a rookie error which allowed Graeme Johncock to take the mark which led to the match-winning goal. So they'll be annoyed about blowing that chance to get out of the wooden spoon zone – and that Round 7 result. Their vice-captain, the injury prone half-back Josh Drummond will play just his fourth game of the season and first since round 13. The Suns are coming to the end of a long debut year, and that was reflected in their 150-point loss to Geelong last week. So there won't be any more heroics this time around; just a regulation win to the Lions to give them some breathing space above the foot of the table.

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 42 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Bris $1.36, GC $3.00

MELBOURNE V WEST COAST (Sunday, 1.10pm, Etihad Stadium)

Demons caretaker coach Todd Viney has already floated Liam Jurrah, Colin Sylvia and Cale Morton as possible inclusions after impressive games for VFL team Casey last week, so it's clear he won't be scared to experiment with his line-up. It's a shame this match isn't being played at the MCG where Melbourne might be some chance at an upset. But, at Etihad, where the Demons' record is truly woeful, they have no home ground advantage at all. Oddly, these two teams have only met at this ground once – and that was back in 2000. Beaten by 262 points in their past two outings, the Dees' confidence will not be high. And they meet a side who are a genuine chance at making the top four. Nic Naitanui and Daniel Kerr helped form an irresistible midfield combination against Richmond last week – and it's hard to see who's going to slow down that engine room. On top of that, Eagles' full-forward Josh Kennedy is available after missing two games with an eye injury. For all that, we have a hunch Melbourne will be surprisingly competitive here and give the visitors a good run for their money.

BPL Tip: West Coast by 19 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Melb $4.25, WC $1.20

RICHMOND V SYDNEY (Sunday, 2.10pm, MCG)

Richmond's losing run reached six games last weekend with its 57-point defeat to West Coast in Perth. After four wins and a draw from their opening nine games, which produced much optimism at Punt Rd, the Tigers have won only once since. Their last victory came against the Brisbane on June 18. And on Sunday, they meet the battle-hardened, gritty and physical Sydney, which is clinging on to seventh place after its devastating one-point loss to Essendon last week. It was the Swans' fifth loss in the past seven games so they're not exactly in peak form. And that, combined with the fact that Richmond reserves some of its best football for Saturday afternoons at the 'G' (and Jack Riewoldt is due to kick a bag), should make for an interesting encounter. In fact, we see this as a real danger game for Sydney. If the Tigers can get off to a good start, the home crowd starts getting behind them, and Adam Goodes is kept reasonably quiet, Richmond can score a much-needed and upset win.

BPL Tip: Richmond by 13 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Rich $3.30, Syd $1.30

ADELAIDE V GEELONG (Sunday, 4.10pm, AAMI Stadium)

It was in this corresponding match last year that Adelaide had its greatest win of the season: an 11-point triumph over the reigning premiers. Of course, after the Crows' horror start to the year, that was too little, too late. Slightly similar circumstances this time around: Geelong sit in second place and go in as hot favourites, while the underperforming Crows – who've had two wins under caretaker coach Mark Bickley – have nothing to lose and will throw caution to the wind. The Cats will bring back ruckman Brad Ottens and defender Corey Enright while Daniel Menzel, who has shaken off a back problem, is also a likely starter. Geelong have been trampling all over opponents at Skilled Stadium but this will provide a sterner test. Bickley has given his team more of a licence to take the game on and we fancy the Crows will cause Geelong a bit of grief early, before the natural order is restored in the second half.

BPL Tip: Geelong by 32 points
TAB Sportsbet Odds: Adel $8.50, Geel $1.05

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