Intelligent Investor

Woolworths

By · 23 Apr 2012
By ·
23 Apr 2012 · 2 min read
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Recommendation

Woolworths Group Limited - WOW
Buy
below 23.00
Hold
up to 27.00
Sell
above 38.00
Buy Hold Sell Meter
LONG TERM BUY at $25.88
Current price
$32.07 at 16:40 (24 April 2024)

Price at review
$25.88 at (23 April 2012)

Max Portfolio Weighting
5%

Business Risk
Low

Share Price Risk
Low
All Prices are in AUD ($)

Woolworths is hoping for an Aerogard-led recovery next year, after poor summer weather led to weak sales of ice creams, soft drinks and insecticides. But it’s ongoing fresh produce price deflation that’s the main problem, with the company reporting zero same-store sales growth in its food and liquor business for the third quarter.

That compares with 1.9% in the first quarter and 1.1% in the second. Coles will also show weakening growth when it releases its sales results soon, although it should still outperform its larger rival.

Portfolio Point
The recommended 5% portfolio limit reflects the company’s current valuation. But if you’ve been a shareholder for many years or bought shares at lower prices, then you might be comfortable with a higher portfolio limit given Woolworths’ competitive advantages and impressive track record.

None of this is a big surprise, and produce price deflation will prove temporary. After all, with bananas now around $2.00-$3.00 a kilo, down from $15.00 after Cyclone Yasi last year, they’re unlikely to go much lower.

But unless same-store sales growth resumes over the next year, don’t expect much profit growth from Woolworths in 2013. Masters will continue to be a drag on profitability next year too, although changes to the Victorian gaming market should provide some upside for Woolworths' hotels. The share price is up slightly since Woolworths’ action-packed result from 5 Mar 12 (Long Term Buy – $25.39) and the stock remains a LONG TERM BUY.

Note: The model Growth and Income portfolios own shares in Woolworths.

IMPORTANT: Intelligent Investor is published by InvestSMART Financial Services Pty Limited AFSL 226435 (Licensee). Information is general financial product advice. You should consider your own personal objectives, financial situation and needs before making any investment decision and review the Product Disclosure Statement. InvestSMART Funds Management Limited (RE) is the responsible entity of various managed investment schemes and is a related party of the Licensee. The RE may own, buy or sell the shares suggested in this article simultaneous with, or following the release of this article. Any such transaction could affect the price of the share. All indications of performance returns are historical and cannot be relied upon as an indicator for future performance.
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