Woolworths
Recommendation
Woolworths is hoping for an Aerogard-led recovery next year, after poor summer weather led to weak sales of ice creams, soft drinks and insecticides. But it’s ongoing fresh produce price deflation that’s the main problem, with the company reporting zero same-store sales growth in its food and liquor business for the third quarter.
That compares with 1.9% in the first quarter and 1.1% in the second. Coles will also show weakening growth when it releases its sales results soon, although it should still outperform its larger rival.
The recommended 5% portfolio limit reflects the company’s current valuation. But if you’ve been a shareholder for many years or bought shares at lower prices, then you might be comfortable with a higher portfolio limit given Woolworths’ competitive advantages and impressive track record. |
None of this is a big surprise, and produce price deflation will prove temporary. After all, with bananas now around $2.00-$3.00 a kilo, down from $15.00 after Cyclone Yasi last year, they’re unlikely to go much lower.
But unless same-store sales growth resumes over the next year, don’t expect much profit growth from Woolworths in 2013. Masters will continue to be a drag on profitability next year too, although changes to the Victorian gaming market should provide some upside for Woolworths' hotels. The share price is up slightly since Woolworths’ action-packed result from 5 Mar 12 (Long Term Buy – $25.39) and the stock remains a LONG TERM BUY.
Note: The model Growth and Income portfolios own shares in Woolworths.