In the aftermath of the GFC Intelligent Investor Share Advisor had recommended some cracking Speculative Buy ideas, such as RHG, Goodman PLUS, Sirtex Medical, Cellestis, Silver Lake Resources and Integra. More recently, though, the current crop of speculative buy recommendations have hit a rough patch.
The collateral damage is always contained by ankle-high portfolio limits, but throughout Share Advisor's 15-year history our speculative buy recommendations have produced an annual return of around 7-8%, roughly half that of our ordinary Buy recommendations. Ordinary buy recommendations outnumber speculative recommendations five to one, but a sample size of a bit less than 100 speculative recommendations is large enough to make inferences.
As value investors that have clearly established a competitive advantage recommending higher quality businesses over 15 years, should we be recommending speculative ideas or sticking to our clear circle of competence analysing high quality businesses?