RHG Group
Recommendation
RHG Group produced a $26m interim net profit, and forecast a full year profit of $39-$44m. But as the directors warned, ‘the mortgage book is in paydown and therefore future profits are expected to be materially lower’. A fully franked 4.5 cent dividend was declared (ex date passed), but the timing and amount of future dividends is still uncertain.
While the investment case laid out in The final word on RHG from 16 May 11 (Hold – $0.48) remains on track, the remaining mortgage portfolio is filled with relatively risky borrowers that are unable to refinance elsewhere. Additional risks include the availability and cost of RHG’s own debt financing.
The share price has fallen 24% since 1 Sep 11 (Sell – $0.56) due to the 20.5 cents of dividends declared since then. SELL.