Qantas turnaround spells trouble for aeroholics

Everything was going wrong for Qantas a year ago and now everything seems to be going right – which makes it a particularly dangerous time for those with a craving for airline stocks.

These are dangerous times for ‘aeroholics’. Just about every article following Qantas’s half-year results has had a positive spin: the company has turned itself around in only a year; capacity/demand has stabilised; the market share war with Virgin Australia has abated; fuel prices have plummeted; profits are set to explode.

It makes for a heady cocktail but these factors are already accounted for in a share price that has almost trebled in little more than a year. The greatest danger now is in forgetting the risks, and these are laid bare by last year's performance.

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