Intelligent Investor

Pacific Brands

By · 19 Mar 2013
By ·
19 Mar 2013 · 2 min read
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Recommendation

Pacific Brands Limited - PBG
Buy
below 0.50
Hold
up to 1.10
Sell
above 1.10
Buy Hold Sell Meter
HOLD at $0.84
Current price
$1.15 at 16:34 (20 July 2016)

Price at review
$0.84 at (19 March 2013)

Max Portfolio Weighting
3%

Business Risk
Medium

Share Price Risk
Medium
All Prices are in AUD ($)

Pacific Brands, as its name suggests, owns an assortment of Australian fashion and homewear brands. Own a pair of Bonds stocks? or Dunlop Volleys? They’re just a few of the company’s labels. See Table 1 for a list of the key brands.

Brand Category
Table 1: Key brands
Underwear
Underwear
Bedding
Workwear
Workwear
Bedding

Results recently have been poor. Higher cotton prices, uncompetitive local manufacturing and a decision by Kmart to only stock private label products has seen earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) fall over the past few years (see Table 2). Shareholders have fared worse still due to a highly dilutive 3 for 4 capital raising at 60 cents per share cents in 2009.

A change of strategy was needed. Australian manufacturing plants have been closed, and the brand portfolio has been trimmed. Pacific Brands has also expanded its sales focus beyond wholesaling to new direct sales channels such as online and direct retail.

The recent interim results confirm that these changes appear to be working – well, at least in part. Earnings from its underwear division continue to rise, up 9.9% to $33.8m, but this was offset by lower earnings from its workwear and homewear/footwear divisions which fell 3.0% and 32.2% respectively to $18.8m and $12.0m.

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Table 2: Financials summary
Revenue ($m) 2,117 1,960 1,742 1,615 1,323 1,350
Gross margin (%) 44.4 41.6 41.5 46.6 46.4 46.0
EBIT ($) 226 169 173 186 129 130
EPS (cents) 21 -40 6 -14 -49 9
DPS (cents) 17 n/a n/a 6 5 5

The recent result highlights the dilemma for potential investors. ‘Bonds’ – Australia’s number one apparel brand according to Neilson, is well worth owning. As is Berlei and Dunlop Volleys. These brands possess pricing power and growing demand. But along with the good come the bad. And we have reservations about other brands such as Sheridan or Hard Yakka, especially in an environment where economic growth is slowing and private labels are becoming more popular.

Still, the new chief executive, John Pollaers, appears to making sound progress: debt is falling, margins are stabilising and dividends have resumed. To be sure Pacific Brands isn’t a high-quality business, but trading on an underlying EBIT to enterprise multiple of 7 and a fully franked dividend yield of 6.0% it isn’t being price like one either. We’re commencing coverage with HOLD.

IMPORTANT: Intelligent Investor is published by InvestSMART Financial Services Pty Limited AFSL 226435 (Licensee). Information is general financial product advice. You should consider your own personal objectives, financial situation and needs before making any investment decision and review the Product Disclosure Statement. InvestSMART Funds Management Limited (RE) is the responsible entity of various managed investment schemes and is a related party of the Licensee. The RE may own, buy or sell the shares suggested in this article simultaneous with, or following the release of this article. Any such transaction could affect the price of the share. All indications of performance returns are historical and cannot be relied upon as an indicator for future performance.
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