No-one cares about the budget

Last year (see Who cares about the budget?) I made the point that it was silly for us to get excited about budget forecasts (and surpluses) that were likely to be horribly wrong. My guess was that there was an error factor of plus or minus $50b with a likely revenue shortfall of $20b based on recent experience Now that we're a year on we can see that the range was about right and the shortfall underestimated. Ignoring the politicians' shifting goalposts, the latest guess is that revenue will come in about $30b shy of the original forecast ($350b vs...

Last year (see Who cares about the budget?) I made the point that it was silly for us to get excited about budget forecasts (and surpluses) that were likely to be horribly wrong. My guess was that there was an error factor of plus or minus $50b with a likely revenue shortfall of $20b based on recent experience

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