Macro: what chance a recession?

As the economic numbers decline, resources stocks get smashed and the budget deficit increases, John Addis asks whether a recession looms.

Between 1982 and 2008, The Netherlands experienced 103 quarters between recessions. Australia is on the verge of breaking that record. Despite one negative quarter of economic growth at the time of the GFC, Australia hasn’t had a recession since the second quarter of 1991 (technically, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth). Despite a rather weak recent figure, 97 quarters have elapsed since the ’91 recession. One more year would do it.


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