Infigen: A broken thesis?

The downside protection in this situation is less than originally thought. Gareth Brown unravels the complications, explains why he’s sticking with it and why you may not want to.

The original investment case for wind farm group Infigen Energy was simple enough. ‘Heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much’ summed it up. That case was challenged by a member with knowledge of the structure, prompting further research. As a result, the investment case needs to be restated, unfortunately, to ‘Heads I win, tails I might lose more than originally thought’.

Infigen has about $1bn of debt sitting in a single ‘global facility’. The original thesis and subsequent reviews suggested that debt and 23 of the group’s 24 wind farms shared the same fate.

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