Hot stock tips for 2012

No, that's not a typo. Amidst the silly season's 'hot tips for 2013' articles it is worth taking a moment to reflect on how pointless they are (possibly dangerous for those who act on them) and the fact that no-one ever goes back to check on how the 2012 tips performed.I have just finished reading Nassim Nicolas Taleb's latest book 'Anti-fragile', in which he uses the concept of 'Postdictors' (those who say lots of, often inconsistent, things and, after the fact, claim those that work out well as predictions). The concept applies perfectly to 'Hot stock tips for 2013', statements by treasurers...

No, that's not a typo. Amidst the silly season's 'hot tips for 2013' articles it is worth taking a moment to reflect on how pointless they are (possibly dangerous for those who act on them) and the fact that no-one ever goes back to check on how the 2012 tips performed.

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