Despair at oil price predictions

Forecasters at investment banks remind me of clowns. They incite the same level of comedy and horror as their circus centric kin and they do it regularly. Take the oil price as an example. Four years ago when oil prices were persistently above $100 a barrel, every bank and financial institution was scrambling to raise forecasts that persistently lagged the actual oil price. This led to the inevitable absurdity of banks almost competing with each other for the highest oil price call. Predictions of $150, $200 and even $300 a barrel were routine. The same thing is happening now in...

Forecasters at investment banks remind me of clowns. They incite the same level of comedy and horror as their circus centric kin and they do it regularly. Take the oil price as an example.

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