Carnarvon Petroleum

Our initial production estimates for Carnarvon Petroleum were wrong. Relying on historical data and results from several production tests, we estimated production would be more than twice what it is today. That failure meant we paid too much in Carnarvon Petroleum: a potential Thai coup on 11 Oct 10 (Speculative Buy - $0.47). It's not easy after a large unrealised loss, but we need to ignore the initial buy price and concentrate on the price and value today. The company still holds 20m barrels of high margin oil. Despite oil prices of more than $100 a barrel, the market attributes less than $3 a barrel for...

Our initial production estimates for Carnarvon Petroleum were wrong. Relying on historical data and results from several production tests, we estimated production would be more than twice what it is today. That failure meant we paid too much in Carnarvon Petroleum: a potential Thai coup on 11 Oct 10 (Speculative Buy - $0.47). It's not easy after a large unrealised loss, but we need to ignore the initial buy price and concentrate on the price and value today.

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