Aussie Unhinged From the US Economy

For the past few years, the correlation between the AUD/USD exchange rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been extremely high (0.89 for the stats enthusiasts, which means 89% of the movement in the exchange rate can be explained by movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average). Every time the US economy shows signs of life, the Dow Jones rises, and so does the Aussie dollar. The theory being that a strong US economy means a strong global economy and high commodity prices. Good news for Australia. With a large portion of the Value Fund invested in stocks...

For the past few years, the correlation between the AUD/USD exchange rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been extremely high (0.89 for the stats enthusiasts, which means 89% of the movement in the exchange rate can be explained by movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average). Every time the US economy shows signs of life, the Dow Jones rises, and so does the Aussie dollar. The theory being that a strong US economy means a strong global economy and high commodity prices. Good news for Australia.

dow jones vs USD_AUD_1_1.jpg

With a large portion of the Value Fund invested in stocks with exposure to the US economy, every piece of good news on US employment or GDP has been offset by bad news on the currency front.

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