WEEKEND READ: How far will Russia go?

Stratfor.com
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev flew to Tajikistan on Wednesday for a summit with China and four Central Asian countries – Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

The countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which meets regularly. This meeting had been on the schedule for while and has no significance, save that it brings the Russians into contact with four former members of the Soviet Union and – as important – China.

Each of the Central Asian countries is obviously trying to measure Russia's long-term intentions. The issue will not be Georgia, but what Georgia means to them. In other words, how far does Russia intend to go in reasserting its sphere of influence? Medvedev will give suitable reassurances, but the Russian empire and Soviet Union both conquered this area once. Retaking it is possible. That means that the four Central Asian countries will be trying very hard to retain their independence without irritating the Russians. For them, this will be a careful meeting.

Of greater interest to the world is China's view of the situation. Again, China has no interest in Georgia. It does have to have quiet delight over a confrontation between the United States and the Russians. The more these two countries are worried about each other, the less either – and particularly the United States – can worry about the Chinese. For China, a US-Islamic world and US-Russian confrontation is just what the doctor ordered. Certainly the least problem Washington will have is whether the yuan floats or not, and hoping for cooperation with China, the United States will pull its punches on other issues. That means that the Chinese will express sympathy to all parties and take part in nothing. There is no current threat to Central Asia, so they have no problems with the Russians. If one emerges, they can talk.

In the meantime, in the main crisis, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called attention to the Black Sea as a potential flashpoint in the confrontation between Russia and the West. He warned that there could be direct confrontations between Russian and NATO ships should NATO or its member nations increase their presence there. According to NATO there are currently four NATO ships in the Black Sea for a previously scheduled exercise called Active Endeavor. Putin explicitly warned, however, that there could be additional vessels belonging to NATO countries in the Black Sea that are not under NATO command.

It is hard to get warships into the Black Sea unnoticed. The ships have to pass through the Bosporus, a fairly narrow strait in Turkey, and it is possible to sit in cafes watching the ships sail by. Putting a task force into the Black Sea, even at night, would be noticed, and the Russians would certainly know the ships are there.

As a complicating factor, there is the Montreux Convention, a treaty that limits access to the Black Sea by warships. The deputy chief of the Russian general staff very carefully invoked the Montreux Convention, pointing out that Turkey, the controlling country, must be notified 15 days in advance of any transit of the Bosporus, that warships can't remain in the Black Sea for more than 21 days and that only a limited number of warships were permitted there at any one time. The Russians have been reaching out in multiple diplomatic channels to the Turks to make sure that they are prepared to play their role in upholding the convention. The Turkish position on the current crisis is not clear, but becoming crucial; both the United States and Russia are working on Turkey, which is not a position Turkey cares to be in at the moment. Turkey wants this crisis to go away.

It is not going away. With the Russians holding position in Georgia, it is now clear that the West will not easily back down. The Russians certainly aren't going to back down. The next move is NATO's, but the alliance is incapable of moving, since there is no consensus. Therefore, the next move is for Washington to lead another coalition of the willing. It is coming down to a simple question. Does the United States have the appetite for another military confrontation (short of war, we would think) in which case it will use its remaining asset, the US Navy, to sail into the Black Sea? If it does this, will it stay a while and then leave or establish a permanent presence (ignoring the Montreux Convention) in support of Ukraine and Georgia, with its only real military option being blockade? If this happens, will the Russians live with it, will they increase their own naval, air and land based anti-ship missile capabilities in the region, or will they increase pressure elsewhere, in Ukraine or the Baltics?

In short, how far does this go?