Two tests for commodities

Here’s what commodity markets need before a convincing recovery is possible.

Summary: An estimated half the world’s minerals and fuels are being produced at a loss. More material needs to leave the market and a bout of full-blown capitulation is needed before the recovery phase. Two tests to measure this include an investment bank survey and any entry by private-equity funds.

Key take-out: Before commodity prices can regain some of their lost ground, they need more mine closures to help reduce stockpiles, a pick-up in global growth and a clearer view of the new normal.

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