TWEET TALK: Rate debate

Economists are split on the outcome of today's Reserve Bank board meeting, but most agree it will be a tough decision.

Tweet Talk takes the best of Twitter and brings it to you. Today, economists weigh in on what move they think the RBA will make on interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia faces a tough decision today when it meets to decide on the future of the official cash rate. Last month, the central bank moved to cut rates by 50 basis points, but continuing weak conditions and recent poor economic data, both locally and overseas, have led to speculation another cut could be on the cards.

Economists are split on the outcome of the meeting, and while most expect a cut, debate over the size of the move rages. Here's a collection of their comments on Twitter.

optionsXpress market analyst Ben Le Brun ‏(@benlebrun) says the RBA faces a tough call, and believes there are three realistic directions in which it could go.

"I just find it too difficult to see back to back 50bp cuts. 25 is my tip. Most intriguing one in years." he tweeted.

CommSec chief economist Craig James (‏@craigjamesOZ) agrees, saying recent local data showed the RBA could justify a move.

" least a quarter of a per cent [cut.]" he tweeted. "convincing case to cut...small biz, housing doing it tough and inflation under control".

Market Economics managing director Stephen Koukoulas ‏(@TheKouk) says the central bank faces a truly tough decision, but argues a 50 point cut is the right move.

"Having been torn between 25 or 50; I think 50 is necessary given global and domestic economic and market news", he tweeted.

MM&E Capital managing director Tom Elliott ‏(@TomElliott3AW) is also among those that thinks the RBA will go harder.

"Lack of confidence on global mkts makes me think that the RBA will cut rates by 50bps tomorrow," he tweeted. "But will this engender more uncertainty?"

Don't expect the big banks to go along for the ride, he warns.

"Ps and if I'm correct and the RBA cuts rates by 50bps, the most that the big banks will pass on is about 30bps".

Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP), head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, expects the bank to repeat its dose from last month.

"I expect a cut of 50bps", he tweeted.

CMC chief market strategist Michael McCarthy ‏(@Michael_CMC) has gone one out on the decision, expecting the RBA to take a 'wait and see' approach.

"Am an outlier - expecting no change tomorrow - note that the market is pricing more than 25 bps", he tweeted.

The RBA will release its decision at 1430 AEST today. The official cash rate currently sits at 3.75 per cent. Twelve of the 16 economists surveyed by AAP say the RBA will cut the cash rate.

You can follow Business Spectator on Twitter @businessspec.

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