The politics of cholera

Stratfor.com

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe declared on December 11 that a cholera epidemic that led to the deaths of almost 800 citizens has ended. The epidemic began in August, infecting tens of thousands of Zimbabweans. Under normal circumstances, the disease is easily treated; however, Zimbabwe's failed state and lack of basic services means that cholera in the country will not be eradicated. Furthermore, with power-sharing talks between the country's ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) parties at a standstill, no large-scale development funds will be forthcoming to begin to reconstruct Zimbabwe's collapsed infrastructure.

Cholera is an infection usually transmitted in unboiled or untreated drinking water. It is caused by a bacterium that produces a toxin that triggers massive water secretion and impairs the intestines' ability to reabsorb fluids. Cholera ultimately triggers death by causing people to rapidly lose gallons of fluid – via diarrhea – bringing on a severe, exhaustive dehydration. It is usually countered by an oral rehydration treatment consisting of antibiotics and intravenous fluids, and can be prevented simply by boiling water.

But an effective public health response requires money – funds to maintain a water treatment and purification system in the first place, as well as to provide medical personnel with the training and means to respond to a public disease outbreak. And such funds and infrastructure are essentially absent in Zimbabwe. The country, which was once considered the breadbasket of southern Africa, has seen its economy collapse as a result of ZANU-PF economic policies designed to keep the Mugabe regime entrenched in power regardless of the effects on the rest of the country. Inflation surpassing 200 million per cent and unemployment above 80 per cent has compelled Zimbabweans, both skilled and unskilled, to emigrate; an estimated three million Zimbabweans (out of a total national population of some 11 million) already live in South Africa. These are not the sort of circumstances that invite investment in the kind of infrastructure that ensures clean water.

Zimbabwe's essentially destroyed economy is not likely to change any time soon, either. The country could expect billions of dollars in reconstruction funds if a government change removed Mugabe from power. But power-sharing talks that began in July between Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the opposition MDC party led by Morgan Tsvangirai have gone nowhere and show no signs of reaching a resolution. Mugabe and his regime enablers fear losing control – not only because they would lose the financial perks of holding office but, more critically, because they fear being charged for war crimes or human rights violations and ending up in prison. The MDC's inability to provide a credible security guarantee to ZANU-PF officials means the Mugabe regime will not yield power to the opposition, regardless of the state of the country's economy or pressure from outside forces.

No power-sharing agreement means that no significant reconstruction funds will be forthcoming, and that means Zimbabwe's economy will continue to degrade. Treatment for cholera will therefore be incomplete, apart from small bouts of emergency aid from South Africa, non-governmental organisations and international aid agencies – aid that will try to keep cholera contained inside Zimbabwe and prevent its spread to neighbouring countries.

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