The global economy's tentative road to recovery

2014 will be challenging for Australia as it grapples with a transition away from resources. There are signs of a global recovery, but emerging market risks and a savings glut pose impediments to growth.

World economic and trade growth is expected to pick up next year from a rather dull performance in 2013. Australian resource export volumes began to expand  rapidly this year as new capacity from the investment boom went into production. It is likely to ramp up much further over coming years.

Quantitative easing tapering in 2014 is unlikely to cause an emerging market crisis, but it could put overextended companies under strain, as well as economies with large external financing needs, such as Turkey.

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