The bust that Swan didn't see

The government has completely missed the target on iron ore price predictions. Had it considered the irrationality of producer behaviour, it might have known what was coming.

As is not news to anyone today, the decline in Australia’s terms of trade in the first three months of financial year 2012-13 has been anything but gradual: it has fallen five times as much in three months as Treasury expected to happen over the entire year.

Figure 1: Australia’s terms of trade since 1960



{{ twilioFailed ? 'SMS Code Failed to Send…' : 'SMS Code Sent…' }}

Hi {{ user.FirstName }}

Looks like you've already taken a free trial

Please enter your payment details

We have sent you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

please enter this code below to activate your membership

We cannot send you a code via SMS to {{user.DayPhone}}

If you didn't receive SMS code please

SMS code cannot be sent due to: {{ twilioStatus }}

Please select one of the options below:

Looks you are already a member. Please enter your password to proceed

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device

Verify your mobile number to unlock a FREE trial

Please sign up for full access

Updating information

Please wait ...

  • Mastercard
  • Visa

The email address you entered is registered with InvestSMART.

Please login or select "Don't know password"

Please untick this box when using a public or shared device

Register as a new member

(using a different email)

Related Articles