PUNTING SPECTATOR: Punting idol

After picking the winner of Big Brother, Dr Turf can't wait for Australia Idol to start. In the meantime, he's looking at this week's NRL and AFL games.

What a wonderful way to wrap up the weekend last week.

Terri won Big Brother, and that made it two bets during the final week for two winners. I am a changed man, and am now on a one man crusade to get the show back on next season. I don’t care that it's all about stupid, ill-educated bogans purveyed as entertainment for viewers with an IQ to match their golf handicap. They can ‘turkey slap’ me into submission. A winner is a winner. I have finally got it all worked out and I want another crack at the bookies. That is the bad news; the good news is that Australian Idol starts soon, so as they say, one door closes, another one opens….

As far as the rugby league is concerned, we had a little fill up last weekend, so now that we’re playing with a bit of theirs, I am going in hard this round. Here are the prices, this week from Betstar. As always, they may change during the weekend.


Team
Price
Canberra
1.33
Gold Coast
3.35
Penrith
1.75
Wests Tigers
2.10
NZ Warriors
3.10
Melbourne
1.38
Newcastle
1.38
South Sydney
3.10
Sydney
2.03
Manly
1.80
Canterbury
N/A
St George Illawarra
N/A


The Sydney Roosters were woeful last week against Canberra, but I reckon they had their eye on this upcoming game for a couple of weeks. They play Manly on Sunday afternoon, and with the Sea Eagles having a decent injury toll, I think they are ripe for the picking. On form, the Roosters probably deserve to be a lengthy price, so don’t be put off by the $2.03 on offer, I think they will get the cash.

There are some games where it is a waste of time looking at the sides named, you just follow the money. The Bulldogs is one of those teams, and on Thursday there was an avalanche of money around the country for the Dragons to beat them on Monday night. That can only mean one thing – the great Sonny Bill Williams will probably be watching from the stands again. I don’t mind taking the shorter odds and following the smarties in on those sort of moves, so I am into the 7½ point start that the Dragons are conceding. The Dragons are a terrible side, but the Bulldogs are a far worse proposition when Sonny Bill is out of the side. Check the side on Monday night – if Sonny Bill does play, you can always bail out, but for the time being, I am happy to follow the money.

Let's get onto the AFL.


Team
Price
Essendon
3.65
Collingwood
1.29
West Coast
5.55
St Kilda
1.15
Sydney
1.45
Adelaide
2.78
Richmond
1.65
Brisbane
2.28
Port Adelaide
1.61
Fremantle
2.35
Melbourne
4.40
North Melbourne
1.22
Western Bulldogs
1.32
Carlton
3.45


Collingwood, Sydney and the Bulldogs all look morals but represent little value individually. Fremantle are going OK and look a bet against the Port, who are coming off from a tough Derby last week. Try them for the win and at the line.

The Tigers have been good for us in recent weeks and have been well-tried to beat the Lions. They look too short for mine, but doubts over Daniel Bradshaw and Luke Power suggest a wait and see attitude might be the prudent approach. If they both play, I’ll be having something on the Lions.

Enjoy the weekend punters, but remember, let’s be careful out there.