Labor pins its hopes on November

November will mark a turning point for the Gillard government, assuming it stays together that long. That month, give or take a few weeks, will mark a big shift from defence to offence.

I agree with most commentators that Tony Abbott is doing a remarkably good job of pummelling the government at present – taking every opportunity to attack the carbon tax, the government's appalling record on illegal boat arrivals, the need to toughen up on indigenous intervention, and the need to slash government spending in the May 10 federal budget.

Every blow hurts, including his call for "bipartisan" efforts in the Northern Territory intervention. The subtext to that one is that Julia Gillard is yet to be photographed sitting in ochre dust and showing real respect to on-the-ground indigenous Australians. Abbott's record, by comparison, is spotless.

Julia Gillard is also yet to be seen swimming with federal police on Christmas Island or knocking back coldies with Pilbara miners - but that's because she's a bloody sheila, right? Bam! The Abbott gloves make contact again – though I'm not sure the entire electorate shares Tony's respect for the Art of Manliness.

Actually, this is all pretty easy stuff. Abbott knows as well as anyone that the fight will change when the government starts punching back.

That's what will happen from November.

In that month Telstra shareholders look likely to vote on the government's NBN compensation package – $13.8 billion in return for structurally separating its wholesale and retail operations, and migrating its fixed line customers to the new network.

That final missing piece of the NBN-enabling legislation will allow Communications Minister Stephen Conroy to remove his gloves and start taking the NBN fight back to the Coalition. He will have been scribbling down their wildest comments to use against them when better NBN news begins to flow.

And it will flow. NBN Co has announced a trial to extend fibre-optic connections to small communities outside the 93 per cent fibre footprint, in response to requests from local councils who have offered to pay the difference (quite a big difference, as it happens). If the NBN is an "expensive white elephant", these councils are uncommonly keen to ride elephant-back.

The roll-out is currently blighted by a cancelled tender for the infrastructure build to connect 10 million homes. However if an 'alliance-style' contract is able to be negotiated with one of the major bidders to break this impasse, the rollout will regain momentum. That's a big "if", but then the government will move heaven and earth to get some ink on paper.

The second development in November will be the passing of the carbon tax legislation. As I have pointed out previously, this legislation will be unrepeatable for at least four years and the government will likely have 18 months in office for voters to absorb the reality of the tax – that it's early years of operation will be a modest impost, and that jobs in sensitive emissions-intensive trade exposed industries will not be decimated in the way Tony Abbott is currently forecasting.

So it might take until mid-January 2012 to really fire up, but the government will begin a grinding battle for the 2013 election, spearheaded by the NBN and carbon tax.

I realise this runs counter to the received wisdom, which sees these two reforms as the government's biggest liabilities rather than assets. But then most commentary on the carbon tax, NBN and other reforms such as further poker-machine regulation, cite Labor's disastrous slump in voter support in opinion polls – Labor is being thrashed 55 to 45 per cent in the two-party-preferred stakes.

What is less well reported, however, is the deliberative polling being conducted by Essential Media - a self-confessed progressive outfit that nonetheless produces statistically sound answers to both its straight-forward and 'deliberative' questions.

Deliberative polling relies on giving the interviewee some basic information they may not have, before asking the question. For example, in mid-April Essential asked these questions:

– "Do you support or oppose the government's recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?" (The result was 39 per cent support, 49 per cent oppose.)

– "Would you support or oppose this carbon pricing scheme if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices?" (The result, in stark contrast, was 51 per cent support, 33 per cent oppose.)

This kind of polling will be dismissed by some as wishful thinking by a bunch of progressive pollsters. But it's important to note that the sharp difference in respondents' view is caused by imparting only a tiny piece of information - in this case, that they'll receive generous household compensation.

That kind of information is currently not at Labor's fingertips, because it has not yet been released by the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee. But when it is, they will be singing it from the rooftops – the more so because of some of the hyperbolic claims made by to Coalition to date. Abbott's assertion that steel town Whyalla will be wiped off the map will, I suspect, become an embarrassment.

After November, if both the Telstra-NBN deal is approved and the carbon tax is steered through parliament, Labor will start to build some solid information with which to counter opposition attacks.

Then, and only then, will the government begin to start the campaign for 2013. If the NBN roll-out is not the disaster some have predicted, and the actual carbon-tax numbers look unlikely to cause lay-offs at BlueScope and OneSteel, Labor has the opportunity to rebuild its currently shredded political capital.

But it will still be a mammoth task for the embattled government. Labor cannot claw its way back from poll results much lower than its current 32 per cent primary vote.

And as much as it can deliver good news on the NBN and carbon tax, it will be fighting its way through a fog of bad news on the cost of living, as mortgage-belt Australians become increasingly squeezed by inflation on the one hand, and RBA tightening on the other.

You can add to that the illegal boat arrivals mess which shows no sign of improving. There's also the possibility of more attacks from some sections of the mining industry over the final form of the MRRT, and the certainty of more attacks from the poker machine lobby.

And, of course, there's still the slim chance the government will be brought down before November by a backbench resignation or independent defection.

The disintegration of the government before November is still number one on Tony Abbott's wish list – and the straight-up opinion polls show that, minus all the information, there are plenty of voters who agree with him.