How forecasting errors will affect the budget

Treasury’s expected to forecast 3 per cent real GDP growth, 5.5 per cent unemployment and 2.5 per cent inflation for 2013-14. This is in line with a small deficit, but real world outcomes could vary dramatically.

The Forecasting Section within the Economic Division in Treasury is getting close to finalising the economic forecasts that will underpin the 2013-14 Budget on 14 May.

The economic outlook that Treasury come up with in the next couple of weeks will be critical in determining the size of the budget deficit for 2013-14 and the path to surplus in the years after that.

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