Goldilocks and the solar target

The revised regulated target for solar took the market by surprise, with small scale certificate prices jumping noticeably. Has the regulator got the target just right or will it be too low or too high?

The Clean Energy Regulator recently announced that the 2013 Target for small-scale renewable energy certificates or STCs would be 35.7 million, of which 15m was to soak up 2012's over-creation. The market responded immediately with a $2 increase in the price offered by major aggregators, suggesting it thought this was a higher target than expected. But it’s not all good news, indeed the target implies a contraction in the solar market by 20-25%, and in the meanwhile there will be new market dynamics to watch out for.

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