Don't count on a lasting retail recovery

September's retail sales figures beat market expectations, but there are signs household spending will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.

Household spending rebounded in the September quarter and is set to contribute solidly to consumption growth in the national accounts. But will the recovery last, particularly as real wages decline and the terms of trade deteriorates?

The value of retail sales rose by 1.2 per cent in September, beating market expectations, to be 5.7 per cent higher over the year. Sales have recovered somewhat over the past three months after a particularly weak June quarter.

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