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AGL ENERGY LIMITED (AGK)

AGL ENERGY LIMITED (AGK)

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General Information
Company Name: AGL Energy Limited
Stock Code: AGK
Website: www.agl.com.au
GICS Sub-Industry: Gas Utilities
Market Cap ($M): 6,569
Equiv. Shares (M): 465

Current Price Data+
Current Price Open High Low Last Close Volume Price Movement
 $ 14.320 $ 14.200 $ 14.380 $ 14.200 $ 14.140 1,346,939 $ 0.180  1.273 %

Current Broker Consensus Recommendation more
Recommendation: Buy
Recommendation Date: 6th Feb 2012
12 Month Target Price (average): $16.555
Brokers Surveyed: 8

Company Overview

Business Description:
AGL Energy Limited (AGK) controls Australia's largest natural gas and electricity and dual fuel customer base supplying over 3.2 million customer accounts. In addition AGK has substantial long term gas supply contracts, a growing portfolio of upstream coal seam gas reserves and utilises the derivative markets.

Strategy Analysis:
AGK is rebuilding and redefining itself after a management upheaval in 2006. The focus is on developing and driving an integrated strategy balancing risk between upstream supply and retail markets which provides access to multiple profit pools. Upstream supply is focused on gas production involving equity gas, contract gas, transmission and haulage contracts and gas storage. Electricity generation comes from thermal/coal fired power stations and renewable involving wind, hydro, geothermal, landfill and biomass. In the diverse and significant retail markets AGK has market leadership supported by significant economies of scale, a robust and efficient customer service platform, long standing sales and marketing capability, wide experience in effectively managing its regulatory environment and sound risk management. Key strategic initiatives include: Retail - the maintenance of an industry leading retail cost model and continued investment in the brand and competitive capability. Upstream - growth in renewables; growth in generation; and gas portfolio management and investment. Organisational capability includes re-shaping the asset base; the restructure of the balance sheet; and building a high performance culture throughout the group. Project Phoenix is designed to lift overall customer service and improve cash collection. AGL Energy reported NPAT up 56.9% to $558.7m for the year ended 30 June 2011. This result included costs of $27.3m after tax treated as significant items and a gain of $154.9m after tax from the changes in the fair value of financial instruments. Excluding these items, the underlying profit was $431.1m, up 0.5% on the pcp. Revenues from ordinary activities were $7.07bn, up 7% from last year. Basic and Diluted EPS was 122.3 cents compared to 79.2 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $569.3m compared to $390.0m last year. The final dividend declared was 31 cents, taking the full year dividend to 60 cents compared with 59 cents last year.


Financial Summary
Year to Jun NPAT EPS EPS chg (%) PER DPS Yield (%) Franking (%)
2013  F 511.9 109.4 4.5 12.9 68.0 4.8 66.0
2012  F 485.8 104.7 10.8 13.5 65.0 4.6 66.0
2011  A 431.8 94.5 -1.2 15.9 60.0 4.0 52.0
Source: Morningstar analyst estimates.

Peer Comparison
EPS Growth (%) P/E (%) Dividend Yield (%)
Company Mkt Cap 2011 A 2012 F 2013 F 2011 A 2012 F 2013 F 2011 A 2012 F 2013 F
AGL Energy (AGK) $6,644 M 0.3857 0.1356 0.0564 15.1531 13.3433 12.6314 0.0420 0.0453 0.0507
APA Group (APA) $3,024 M 0.0164 0.0364 0.0830 23.9372 23.0957 21.3255 0.0727 0.0740 0.0775
Envestra (ENV) $1,176 M 0.1660 0.2880 0.0762 24.0506 18.6732 17.3516 0.0743 0.0767 0.0792

Market Comparison
Earnings P/E Ratio P/B Ratio P/E Growth P/S Ratio
AGK 0.65 13.8 1.03 1.45 0.91
Market 0.82 12.5 1.38 1.21 1.90
Sector 0.90 16.4 1.19 2.03 2.57

Directors
Name Position Start Date
Mr Michael Anthony Fraser Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director 22 October 2007
Mr Jeremy (Jerry) Charles Roy Maycock Non-Executive Chairman 09 October 2006
Mr Bruce John Phillips Non-Executive Director 23 August 2007
Ms Belinda Jane Hutchinson Non-Executive Director 22 December 2010
Mr Maxwell Gilbert Ould Non-Executive Director 05 October 2006
Ms Sandra Veronica McPhee Non-Executive Director 09 October 2006
Mr Les Hosking Non-Executive Director 01 November 2008
Mr John Victor Stanhope Non-Executive Director 09 March 2009

Management
Name Position
Stephen Mikkelsen Chief Financial Officer
Paul McWilliams Company Secretary
Anthony Fowler Group General Manager Merchant Energy
Ken Hodgson Group General Manager Retail Energy
Michael Moraza Group General Manager Upstream Gas
John Patrick Fitzgerald Joint Company Secretary

Substantial Shareholders
Holding Name
-- (--%) Not Disclosed in Annual Report

Calendar of Events
Date Event
24 September 2012 Report (Annual)
24 February 2012 Report (Prelim)
22 February 2012 Report (Interim)
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