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Megatrends for investors

9 Jun 2015 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver It’s part of human nature to give more weight to the short term rather than the long term. The desire for instant gratification...

What is risk in investing?

1 Apr 2015 Dr Shane Oliver (Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist - AMP Capital) by Shane Oliver What is risk? Surely that is a stupid question as everyone knows what risk is when it comes to investing...

China - the usual worries, but no boom and no bust

18 Mar 2015 AMP Capital - Dr Shane Oliver by Shane Oliver Chinese economic data is off to a soft start this year. However, there are reasons for optimism that growth this year will still come in “around 7%”.

Expect the cash rate to fall to 2% in the months ahead.

4 Feb 2015 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver The RBA was right to cut interest rates again. Growth is too low and inflation is benign. Expect the cash rate to fall to 2% in the months ahead. Record low borrowing rates, the lower $A and the boost to spending power from lower fuel prices should help boost growth to 3% or just over into next year.

Greece and the ECB - is the Eurozone crisis about to make a comeback?

27 Jan 2015 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver While Syriza has won the Greek election, a Grexit is not the most likely outcome. Even if Greece were to exit the Euro, peripheral Europe is now in far better shape than in 2010-12 and Eurozone defence mechanisms are stronger. While the Euro likely has more downside, Eurozone shares are attractive reflecting relatively cheap valuations, the likelihood of stronger growth ahead and very easy ECB monetary conditions.

Fed, US rates & what it means for investors

18 Sep 2014 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver The impending end of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program and when it will start to raise interest rates are looming large for investors. Very easy global monetary conditions, led by the Fed, have been a constant for the last six years helping the global recovery since the GFC.

Australia's 2014-15 Federal Budget – heading back to surplus

14 May 2014 by Shane Oliver

Why investors need to be wary of crowds

12 Feb 2014 by Shane Oliver

Sometimes being at one with a crowd can be nice, eg at rock concerts it adds to the ambience and safety in numbers can provide comfort. However, when crowds turn they can be dangerous and you might get trampled! In fact a wariness of crowds is essential to successful investing.

The risk of a correction or new bear market in shares

23 Jan 2014 by Shane Oliver Since the height of the Eurozone public debt crisis in September/October 2011, global shares are up 58% and Australian shares are up 37%. After such strong gains an obvious issue is whether shares have got ahead of themselves, leaving them vulnerable to a fall. This note looks at the risks.

Review of 2013, outlook for 2014

11 Dec 2013 by Shane Oliver

2013 was notable for what did not happen: the US did not go off the fiscal cliff or default on its debt and the much feared inflation lift off failed to materialise the euro did not fall apart despite a few scares involving Italy, Cyprus, etc China did not hard land despite reports of "ghost cities" and claims of massive debt and Australia did not have a recession despite the mining slowdown. What did happen was mostly positive

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