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China - the usual worries, but no boom and no bust

18 Mar 2015 AMP Capital - Dr Shane Oliver by Shane Oliver Chinese economic data is off to a soft start this year. However, there are reasons for optimism that growth this year will still come in “around 7%”. Monetary policy is easing, the Government is alluding to more stimulus and the threat from the property slump is receding a bit. While a re-run of last year’s 50% gain is unlikely Chinese shares remain attractive. Slower Chinese growth isn’t a major threat to Australia. The main dampener on commodity prices is supply.

Expect the cash rate to fall to 2% in the months ahead.

4 Feb 2015 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver The RBA was right to cut interest rates again. Growth is too low and inflation is benign. Expect the cash rate to fall to 2% in the months ahead. Record low borrowing rates, the lower $A and the boost to spending power from lower fuel prices should help boost growth to 3% or just over into next year.

Greece and the ECB - is the Eurozone crisis about to make a comeback?

27 Jan 2015 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver While Syriza has won the Greek election, a Grexit is not the most likely outcome. Even if Greece were to exit the Euro, peripheral Europe is now in far better shape than in 2010-12 and Eurozone defence mechanisms are stronger. While the Euro likely has more downside, Eurozone shares are attractive reflecting relatively cheap valuations, the likelihood of stronger growth ahead and very easy ECB monetary conditions.

Fed, US rates & what it means for investors

18 Sep 2014 AMP Capital by Shane Oliver The impending end of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program and when it will start to raise interest rates are looming large for investors. Very easy global monetary conditions, led by the Fed, have been a constant for the last six years helping the global recovery since the GFC.

Australia's 2014-15 Federal Budget – heading back to surplus

14 May 2014 by Shane Oliver

Why investors need to be wary of crowds

12 Feb 2014 by Shane Oliver

Sometimes being at one with a crowd can be nice, eg at rock concerts it adds to the ambience and safety in numbers can provide comfort. However, when crowds turn they can be dangerous and you might get trampled! In fact a wariness of crowds is essential to successful investing.

The risk of a correction or new bear market in shares

23 Jan 2014 by Shane Oliver Since the height of the Eurozone public debt crisis in September/October 2011, global shares are up 58% and Australian shares are up 37%. After such strong gains an obvious issue is whether shares have got ahead of themselves, leaving them vulnerable to a fall. This note looks at the risks.

Review of 2013, outlook for 2014

11 Dec 2013 by Shane Oliver

2013 was notable for what did not happen: the US did not go off the fiscal cliff or default on its debt and the much feared inflation lift off failed to materialise the euro did not fall apart despite a few scares involving Italy, Cyprus, etc China did not hard land despite reports of "ghost cities" and claims of massive debt and Australia did not have a recession despite the mining slowdown. What did happen was mostly positive

A better 2014 for the Australian economy & profits

4 Dec 2013 by Shane Oliver

Ever since major mining investment projects, such as Olympic Dam, started to be cancelled over a year ago and it became clear the mining investment boom was coming to an end, much uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for the Australian economy. This was not helped by a mediocre initial response to interest rate cuts and sub-par growth of around 2.3% annualised since the June quarter last year.

Australian profits, the economy and shares

4 Sep 2013 by Shane Oliver Over the last year there has been much commentary warning of an impending collapse in the Australian economy. Much of this has come from foreign commentators sure that the mining boom is the only thing keeping Australia going. Consistent with this there was much fear going into the just concluded June half profit reporting season with many expecting another round of big earnings downgrades.
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