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Are we in for another mid year bout of weakness?
10 Apr 2013 After a strong start to the year, share markets have had a few wobbles lately and defensive assets like bonds have rallied again. An obvious concern is that share markets will go down the same path as the last three years that saw the year start off solidly only to see sharp falls in either the June or September quarters led by flare ups in Europe, worries about US growth and fears about China. From highs around April, global and Australian shares had falls of around 15% in mid 2010, around 20% in 2011 and by around 10% last year.;Secular bull in shares close, but with constrained returns
1 Mar 2013 With shares entering a new cyclical bull market and the US share market not far from all-time highs, it's natural to wonder whether the secular bear market is over. And what does this mean for returns? Is the low return world that we have been in since 2000 history or will returns remain constrained?;A new bull market in shares?
8 Feb 2013 Since the height of the European public debt crisis in September/October 2011, global share markets are up 32% and Australian shares are up 26%. With the global outlook looking brighter, inflows into share markets seemingly starting to pick up and shares accelerating to the upside over the past few months, an obvious question is whether we have commenced a new bull market? This note focuses on cyclical bull markets, associated with three to five year economic cycles rather than whether we are in a long term bull market which can run for a decade or two.;Review of 2012, outlook for 2013
13 Dec 2012 In 2012 there were more worries: renewed fears about Europe more US “double dip” fears weaker growth in the emerging world US drought threatening higher food prices and ongoing Middle East tensions. However, despite the wall of worry it turned out to be a good year for investors.;Investment cycles – why do they matter?
25 Oct 2012 I have always loved the lyrics to The Windmills of Your Mind. Nature is full of cycles. Whether it be the cycle of day and night, seasons, tides, weather cycles from the almost weekly cycles of cold fronts that regularly blow across south east Australia to the longer La Nina and El Nino cycles, fertility cycles, birth and death, etc. But they are also endemic to economics and investment markets.;Three steps forward, two steps back
21 Sep 2012 Back in May it seemed that the risk of a broad-based break-up of the Eurozone was high. Greece looked like it was electing a radical left wing anti-bailout party into government, driving fears it was heading to a messy exit from the euro. This then further intensified fears that other countries would follow, ultimately taking out Spain and Italy. The fear of a euro exit was seeing Spanish and Italian bond yields surge anew and their citizens withdrawing their euro-denominated deposits from their banks.;Is the mining boom over & would it be so bad if it is?
31 Aug 2012 The past week has seen much debate and consternation in Australia as to whether the mining boom that has supposedly propelled the economy for the last decade is over. This followed the cancellation or delay of various resource investment projects including the massive Olympic Dam expansion and a fall in commodity prices over the last year. But is it really over? And would it really be the disaster for Australia that many fear?;More monetary easing on the way in US and EU – will it work?
3 Aug 2012 On one level, the outlook for investment markets right now is simple. If you believe the global economy will spiral down into another recession, then shares and growth assets are likely to struggle. Alternatively, if you believe that global policy makers will be successful in keeping the global economic recovery going, then a sharp rebound is likely at some point.;Australian house prices – is the crash upon us?
28 Jun 2012 After the surge in Australian house prices from the mid 1990s into last decade, my view was that while the risks of a sharp fall in house prices were high, the most likely scenario was an extended period of range bound house prices (in real terms). If anything, most of the surprise has been on the upside – although not by much in real terms. But despite the fears of many, house prices have not plunged like those in the US and elsewhere, despite a bigger boom.;What to do?
29 May 2012 The investment environment remains tough. On a long-term basis, shares and other related growth assets look attractive after several years of poor performance. Against this, Europe and the US are continuing to suffer aftershocks from the global financial crisis, resulting in periodic falls in investment markets as investors run for safety only to be reversed again as government policy-makers swing into action. Meanwhile popular safe havens such as government bonds and bank term deposits are becoming less attractive as yields fall.;
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