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Caton's Corner

Caton's Corner - February 2014

1 Feb 2014 We’re still waiting for convincing signs of some acceleration in growth. A week that began with an apparently weak ISM and ended with a “mixed to weak” employment report provided no such signs. It is possible that some of the apparent softness across a range of indicators is weather-related. The Eastern part of the country has just gone through its second coldest January in the past 30 years, a direct result of the Australian carbon tax, of course. The share market sold off heavily on a particularly manic Monday, but got it all back by week’s end.;

Caton's Corner - January 2014

29 Jan 2014 Many, including me, subscribe to the view that US economic growth will accelerate in 2014, if only because fiscal drag will be less than in 2013. Let’s just say that view has had little support from the data so far this year. It was, in any case, a remarkably slow week for macro-economic news. It was a poor week for the share market, mainly because of concern about global growth and lacklustre earnings reports.;

Caton's Corner - December 2013

2 Dec 2013

The Australian share market fell by 1.9% in November, its first fall in five months. For the financial year to date, the market has still risen by 10.8%. For the calendar year to date it is up by 14.4%. The US share market rose by 2.8% in the month, bringing its year-to-date change to 26.6%. Taking into account the fall in the $A so far this year, Australians invested in the US share market have experienced a gain of more than 44% so far this year!;

Caton's Corner - October 2013

1 Oct 2013 The Australian share market rose by 1.6% in September, its third successive monthly gain. This is the highest monthly close since May 2008. For the quarter, the market rose by 8.7%, its best performance for four years. For the calendar year to date, the rise comes to 12.4%. The US share market rose by 3% in the month, to bring its year-to-date change to 17.9%.;

Caton's Corner - September 2013

1 Sep 2013 The Australian share market rose by 1.6% in August, bringing its year-to gain to 10.5%. For once, the domestic market out-performed the US share market, which registered a fall of 3.1% in the month, leaving its year-to gain at 14.5%.;

Caton's Corner - July 2013

21 Jun 2013 Share market volatility has continued in June. At the close on 20 June, the Australian market had fallen by 3.4% from its 31 May level while the US market was down by 2.6%. This brings the year-to gains to 2.4% and 11.4% respectively.;

Back on track

1 May 2013 The share market got “back on track” in April, with the ASX rising by 4.5% in the month, to be up by 11.7% so far this year. The end-April level was the highest end-month close since June 2008. The US share market, as measured by the S&P500 index rose by 1.8% in the month, to be up by 12% year-to-date.;

In my view, Cyprus will be a one-month wonder.

2 Apr 2013 The share market fell in March, for just the second month since last June. The ASX200 declined by 2.7% but remains up 6.8% for the year to date. Including dividends, share investors are 8.1% ahead so far this year.;

The beat goes on

1 Mar 2013 The share market had another astoundingly good month. The ASX 200 index rose by 4.6%, to bring its performance so far this year to 9.8%. This is the best start to a calendar year in the 20-year history of the ASX 200, and the best two-month performance since August-September 2009. The US share market, as gauged by the S&P 500 stock index rose by 1.1% in the month, to be up by 5% for the year to date.;

Share markets began 2013 in fine fettle.

1 Feb 2013 For the month of January, the US market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, advanced by 5%, to its highest monthly close since October 2007. In the past year, the S&P500 has risen by 13.1%. The US market is now up by 121.4% from its early-March 2009 trough. Over the past 50 years, when the January result has been positive, the year has turned out to be positive 83% of the time. The ASX 200 index rose by 4.9% in the month, to its highest monthly close since August 2008.;
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